Bitcoin (BTC) closed the weekly candle yesterday and in my opinion it looks pretty good ! Here is a weekly chart :
In this chart you will see the indicators Stochastic RSI and OBV (On Balance Volume). I always follow OBV on weekly charts for BTC and Altcoins. It still looks good and nothing much has changed.
The stochastic RSI has crossed bullish recently, coming from oversold and that is a good sign as well.
When I look at price and the weekly candle close, I feel that we are getting closer to move towards the 12K area again, which will be a big resistance. You can see some great buying pressure on the weekly close with a very nice wick to the under-side. This means in general that we will see continuation towards the upside in the coming weeks. When we look at on-chain analysis we see bullish signs as well. On-chain metrics have shown a bullish reversal already a couple of weeks ago and usually it takes some weeks before price appreciates. It seems to me that we are getting very close to see this appreciation in price. The funding rate on BITMEX is still favoring going long, which is a good sign and overall sentiment is right now at fear/neutral, which is a lot better than extreme greed we had a couple of weeks back. A lot of signs point towards a higher price in the coming weeks !
Another important event is the monthly close that Bitcoin will have in a couple of days. Here is a monthly chart :
I am going to keep it very simple. Right now we are above the blue line I drew which is at 10.593$ (the line does not seem very clear in the picture, but it is at the 10.593$ area). Staying above this will confirm for me that we tested this area as support, after recently breaking above it. You can put this line as well around the 10.800$ area because this was resistance back in June 2019, but I give more importance to more touches on the monthly chart and the 10.593$ has more touches as resistance and support. Staying above this area and we will most likely continue heading upwards in the next month, which would mean testing the 12K resistance again (very important level to watch). If we close below it, we will close the gap at 9600$ in my opinion and maybe even going lower towards the 9K area.
On the RSI I have drawn a blue line as well, which shows some historic importance. It has been several times resistance during the bear market and it has shown support as well. On a monthly basis, it means it is very important. Right now we see that it gets very close again. It seems confluent with us staying above the 10.593$ area and the buying pressure we saw on the weekly close. If we close above this blue line I assume we will see a bounce in RSI to the upside, which would generally mean a rise in price as well.
Ethereum Spadina testnet
Tomorrow we will see the Spadina testnet go live for Ethereum, which is very big news if you ask me. This is actually the mainnet for ETH 2.0 and they are going to test it for 3 days. If it turns out good we could see a general launch of 2.0 in the next couple of weeks. If it turns out that there are still some flaws, then we will have to wait a little longer (end of year, beginning of next year). Expect some volatility in Ethereum for the upcoming weeks, because a success might make it rise a lot and if there are flaws, it would be a decent time to dump it so that weak players will sell their ETH. If 2.0 was to come out in a couple of weeks (Spadina turns out successful), you can expect a dump as well around the launch time (buy the rumor, sell the news event).
Conclusion
The weekly close on BTC was good with a lot of buying pressure. In general this leads to continuation towards the upside. The monthly close will be in a couple of days and will most likely determine the path Bitcoin will have in October. Staying above the 10.593$ area and I expect prices to move at least towards the 12K resistance area again. Closing below the 10.593$ area and I expect we will fill the CME gap at around 9600$ in October.
There are quite some confluences that we will move towards the upside (weekly close, monthly still above 10.593$, buying pressure we see, on-chain metrics are bullish, Bitmex funding rate favors going long and sentiment is fear/neutral). However we should remain cautious, because there is quite some instability in the world. Looking at COVID-19 and the American elections that are around the corner, we can expect some volatility and unrest in the stock markets and this can of course affect Bitcoin as well. It would however be a wonderful timing if Bitcoin can decouple from the stock markets and Gold in the next months. The halvening is behind us for some good months already and on-chain metrics show that Bitcoin is very healthy, so it would very well align with price appreciation. Stock markets however are being propped up by central banks and governments and seem more likely to get hurt, looking at the current situation with COVID-19 and a lot of companies having troubles. Debt is spiraling out of control and we see quite some countries having civil unrest and not only smaller countries !
Hopefully we will finally get rewarded for our patience !
I am not a financial adviser and this is not financial advice. Do your own research and make your own decisions.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-finally-breaks-11k-as-traders-assess-btcs-next-move
https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/
