Bitcoin ROI from Market Cycle Bottom

Bitcoin ROI from Market Cycle Bottom

Is BTC still on track?

It's hard to tell.

The market is better than a month ago, but there is still a lot of uncertainty about the future.

So in my infinite research of understanding the market I stopped by the twitter profile of @intocryptoverse (Benjamin Cowen).

One of the theories he tries to explain is the Bitcoin ROI from market cycle bottom.

What's the ROI?

It's the Return of Investment, so if your investment (in this case BTC) is profitable, it is the ratio between the cost of the investment and the performance of it.

It's pretty easy to understand, and the theory is that so far we had 4 cycles:

And you can see on the image that each cycle (starting from the bottom of the lowest price) has always been profitable.

What is more interesting is that you can see how the length of each cycle is increasing and the returns are diminishing.

What does it mean?

It means that each cycle is getting longer and the profits are less. 

But why?

Because everyday the number of users is increasing, and we are not anymore in an early adoption phase but we are reaching (very slowly) mass adoption.

So what happen next?

If the theory is correct, this cycle will end once we reach between 1200 to 1400 days since the beginning of the cycle (more or less between November/December 2021 and January/March 2022). The returns will not be super but we can expect at least 60-80% return and so the prediction of 100K BTC would be correct.

This is just if the theory is right, if not we will reach a bottom and from there a new cycle will begin.

So like always this theory could be wrong but it looks a very interesting one.

PS: I’m not a financial advisor, never invest all your money in crypto, to have a stop loss is very important!

DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH before investing your money.