The employment numbers in the US soared to $17 million in the last three weeks due to the unprecedented lock-down due to coronavirus pandemic. Nonetheless, stocks rose on the Fed’s stimulus of $2.3 trillion to aid businesses in the country from the economic problems.
Jesse Powell, the Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve noted that,
There’s every reason to think we can be back on the road to recovery fairly quickly and that it can be a fairly robust recovery.
The Coronavirus numbers are beginning to reveal that the worst might be behind us now. The curve seems to be flattening in the US, while Italy, France and other European stocks are posting a lower number of cases as well. In all probability, business activity can resume in a couple of weeks.
The stock markets have marked the 50% retracement level from the initial drop around mid-March. However, the reaction seems to have come far earlier than anyone expects.
Economic Recession Perspective
S&P 500 from an all-time high to the recession bottom:
2000 to 2002 – Took over 900 days to reach recession bottom
2007 to 2009 – Took over 500 days to reach recession bottom
2020 to current: Potentially took only 33 days to bottom ?? pic.twitter.com/xfx8RyUsZW
— Josh Rager ?? (@Josh_Rager) April 9, 2020
Safe-Haven View
Moreover, the price of Gold and Oil suggests that the economic situation is not entirely healthy. Oil which showed signs of recovery at $28 earlier this month, slumps back to lows at $22. The demand for energy is extremely low as global lockdown continues.
Furthermore, Gold closed at a new All-Time High suggesting that the investors are also inclining towards ‘safe-haven’, as uncertainty continues to increase. The price of Gold on 9th April closed at $1681, the previous ATH was recorded before the COVID-19 panic drop in March.
Bitcoin stands to benefit from this view as it is beginning to de-couple from the stock markets as well. Yesterdays’ rise in the stock markets was not echoed across the crypto-markets. Bitcoin is holding on to its gains above $7250 holding the 50-Day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) as support.
Fundamentally, the current view gives ample reason for mistrust in the long-term sustainability of the Federal Reserve policies and the effect of a recession on the global economy. However, short-term uncertainty continues to linger around all asset classes.
Do you think Bitcoin will rise as the trustless monetary system? Please share your views with us.
