Outlook: Bitcoin fell on Friday, dropping below the $19,000 level and eventually closing the daily candle under $18,800 to end the week. This is not a great look for Bitcoin, although there are multiple indicators pointing to a near-term pullback in the largest-cap crypto asset. This makes sense as Bitcoin went nearly unimpeded from the beginning of October until Thanksgiving weekend in the US just last week, so a pullback to digest the gains is a healthy market reaction right now. Bitcoin, nor any other asset, can go straight up forever without a correction; it's just not sustainable.
That being said, I think near-term we see Bitcoin drift lower to the $16,000 - $17,000 level, which was supportive last weekend and ultimately ended up in an explosive bounce higher. If we test that level again and Bitcoin breaks through to the downside, I think we'll be looking at somewhere between $13,000 - $15,000 - see "Support" below.
In other markets, equities are going parabolic, possibly a last ditch effort and Wave 5 blowoff top following the 10 year yield, and gold appears to be completing a corrective rally off the local lows, possibly signaling a further fall back to the lows, if not lower. Gold falling historically has not been good for Bitcoin, but a recent narrative lately has been that capital has been fleeing gold and being moved into Bitcoin. This is worth watching, as at least some of Bitcoin's growing market cap will be siphoned from gold as a nearly $10 trillion global market cap.
Going forward, I am a buyer on dips and continue to accumulate along with smart money which has been snatching up Bitcoin as it becomes less and less finite and appreciates in value against the rapidly depreciating fiat currencies. I think pullbacks to the $17,000 or even $16,000 levels offer value and, though shallow dips, are discounts from buying at current prices just under the ATH.
Support: $17,000 or even $16,000 are my target for a local bottom on a near-term pullback, as it provided support late last week and into the weekend as Bitcoin sold off a bit. It's hard to believe but I think $16,000 is good value as there is a confluence of supportive variables there, being the most recent support, the 38.2% fib, and the rising 50 Day EMA which is just below and rising at ~$15,450. Below that, the 50% fib at $14,852 and the 61.8% fib at $13,670 should be very supportive.
Resistance: No changes; $20,000 remains firm resistance, which makes sense as it's the previous ATH. When BTC breaks above $20,000, which, may actually happen in shorter time than we had anticipated, I suspect a non-insignificant amount of stop-limit buy orders that are set just above $20,000 will be triggered, causing a rocket in price up to $25,000 or even $30,000 in short order.
About Us:
If you enjoy these posts, please support the channel by "Tipping" this post below, or using either of the referral links below.
They cost you nothing and give me a small reward, which makes me a little happier to share these personal analyses with you at no cost.
Buy Bitcoin here.
Earn Crypto here.
