Bitcoin rallied a bit on Thursday, initially falling to the $13,000 level before turning around and closing the day on a green note just under the $13,500 level. Bitcoin may be forming a new $1,000 range in the $13,000 - $14,000 region.
(October 29, 2020 8:00 PM EST)
Outlook: Bitcoin initially fell but recovered strongly today, oscillating as much as $700 throughout the day before closing in the green. There has been a lot of back and forth as traditional markets see a surge of selling amid heightened uncertainty in, hell, everything. I think there is still yet some weakness ahead as we enter a treacherous next few weeks of low liquidity and more risk-off positions, so I would not be surprised to see Bitcoin pull back to the low $12,000s. However deep or shallow a pullback over the next few weeks, that does not mean I'm selling or opening a short. On the contrary, I'm looking to buy value underneath.
It is interesting to note that while gold did fall pretty hard today, reaching its lowest point in almost a month, Bitcoin not only held on but rallied further versus yesterday's price. This supports my thesis that while Bitcoin is not immune to collateral damage from other markets selling off, Bitcoin will be more resilient during liquidity events and more bullish during bullish seasons. This is a good example of how Bitcoin is slowly shedding its correlation to traditional markets and really trades more like an independent commodity at this point.
Support: I think it makes a lot of sense that Bitcoin pulls back to previous resistance around the $12,000 level, dipping possibly as low as the $11,000s. That would make for a clean test of new support/former resistance and a healthy reset before resuming the uptrend to higher highs in Q4. Areas of note are $12,000, the 50 Day EMA around $11,500, and $10,000 which is both major psychological support and the 200 Day EMA.
Resistance: I think Bitcoin is carving out a new range in which case $14,000 is the new point of resistance. I think we'll see some very choppy price action over the next few weeks, so look for swings in both directions, though my very short-term bias is to the downside for an Election/COVID-induced pullback before the buyers step in and we test $14,000 again. After that, I don't think $15,000 is a major resistance level, so anything above that I think is a slingshot to $20,000.
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