There has been a small rise into the supply zone after last week's analysis. At the top of the supply zone, a top formation has formed with slight bearish candles. The rise has come right into the golden pocket of the down move we had discussed last week. Since there has been no candle close above the orange Fibonacci level at 60154, the likelihood of a decline has increased slightly. On the rsi we see a trend line that cannot be broken by the rsi, at least not yet. The rsi is also moving below the ema again and is still just above the 50 level at the time of writing.
daily chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ca9jNNHX/
Looking through the eyes of the bulls, the 4h chart does not look very promising. We seem to be ranking between the 3 green Fibonaci levels. Since the monthly open (mo) has been retested bearish and this retest has come beautifully into the golden pocket from the wave down I expect a minimal decline to the ema200 around 55K.
The ema's are still in favor of the bulls but the rsi is in a downtrend. Thus the rsi is below the ema and below the 50 level.
4h chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/uUfLnr9w/
On the 1h chart the ema's 55 and 100 have already turned bearish and the price is below the ema200 which will now serve as resistance. The rsi has had a big drop to the 30 level and is now bouncing off it again towards the ema. This will be the 1st back test after the rsi crossed the ema bearish.
You can also see a vertical yellow line on the chart. With this line I want to show you what I already mentioned in my analyses last week and many times before. When you have a trend line on the candles and the rsi you can often see on the rsi what the price is going to do. Just look at the yellow line and you'll already see a break-out on the rsi while on the candles it only came an hour later.
1h chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/eCYkaIAI/
Conclusion:
If we can't get above 59800 on the HTF I think it is most likely that we will go down for a while. The first stop will be around 55K but I do not exclude a drop to 50K. When we start to lose that as well then we should seriously look at the 40K.
