Bitcoin has set a lower low after it had already set a lower high. Is this a (temporary) trend reversal? If it sets another lower high, in my opinion this is a confirmation for further down. But we will see in a moment on the lower timeframes. The daily GP is almost reached but the weekly GP is still there and we will keep an eye on it.
Daily, the ESMs are still bullish but the strength is starting to wane a bit. This can be seen by the fact that the ESAs are moving sideways. The rsi has also dipped below 50 but will continue its way up it seems. However, the ema above it will cause resistance.
As I mentioned in last week's analysis a candle close below the white zone would be a confirmation for a (temporary) down trend. After the zone has been broken you will see when you will cross the white zone a beautiful retest on which you could have taken an excellent short.
Now we see that it is not clear what the temporary trend is, because the highs and lows are crossing each other. After all, you want to see a HH after an HL before an upmove. The top forming now is a HH relative to the 2nd LH a HH but looking at the 1st LH it is an equal high. A sideways trend could be forming now.
The ema55 is bearish crossed with the ema100 and both are currently providing resistance. The rsi is above 50 and is lying down with a rising ema below the rsi a bounce could occur which could strengthen a move up. However if the rsi goes lower then the drop to the weekly golden pocket is very realistic.
This chart shows it even better. We can also see here that all three of the ema's are bearish. The ema55 does go up significantly while the ema100 goes sideways. This may indicate a bullish crossover. The rsi has looked up to the edge of overbought and is currently cooling for a while. If the rsi stays above the ema then a continuation up has the best chance.
Conclusion:
In summary, I am watching the LTF to see what will happen now that the white zone is being tested again and only when it has flipped back to support will I look at long positions. Until then the chance of a retrace to the weekly golden pocket is still plausible but no guarantee as the price can now also be in a local sideways trend with support just below 31K.
