Bitcoin (almost) to the Moon

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The strength demonstrated by Bitcoin in recent days is truly impressive and its performances have certainly not gone unnoticed in the eyes of world finance. In the last week, Bitcoin has in fact recorded a +14% and has seen the influx of very large capitals. Today's analysis aims to take stock of the situation and understand if and how the movement will spread.

Just like in October 2020, BTC/USD is preparing the sixth green candlestick in sequence on the monthly timeframe and is approaching the ATH. In fact, after breaking the last resistance at $50,000, the all-time high level no longer seems so far away. This price level, if the current weekly candlestick closed above $52k and was then retested, would be a strong support from which to start again to face the last major resistance that separates us from price discovery. The next noteworthy resistances are therefore between $61000 and $65500 (closing of the second peak of the last bullrun). On the contrary, however, if the trend were to reverse and the 50 thousand dollar level was lost, the target would be around 46-47k.

Another factor to consider is the RSI, its value is in fact dangerously high (80) and indicates entry into an overbought zone. We therefore find ourselves in a particular moment in which investors are buying with more force and, historically, the situation does not remain unchanged for a long time. The persistence of this indicator at such high values ??suggests an imminent correction due to a possible unloading by those who are in profit. By then contextualizing the RSI data with the latest events and, in particular, with the capital inflows by the funds holding the spot ETFs, one can understand the reason for the ongoing trend.

Institutional bodies, in fact, are accumulating BTC with ever greater force and this can undoubtedly be seen starting from January 2024 when the price suffered a small decline and then responded with a slight delay at the beginning of February.

The inflow of capital, as we know, directly affects the Total Marketcap which, just like BTC/USD, is facing the first resistance at 1.95T and has another at 2.15T. This is a level broken for the first time in April 2021 and then in August of the same year, in full bull-run. The Bitcoin Marketcap, on the other hand, rises above 1Q for the first time, a very important threshold value.

As regards Dominance, i.e. simply the performance of Bitcoin against other cryptocurrencies, it is following a trend on a weekly timeframe with an oblique support, on which it is bouncing very precisely. As long as support holds, Bitcoin's performance will always be greater than that of other assets, including Ethereum. For now, however, we have reached a level around 54%, not so far from what was recorded at the ATH (70%). This means that for now the incoming capital is redistributed to Bitcoin for the majority.

To conclude the quick analysis, I would like to draw attention to the fact that retail investors have yet to "realize" Bitcoin in all of this. This thesis is supported by the fact that the interest of the average citizen has not increased in the slightest and this can be seen from the Google Trend graph. This graph highlights the degree of retail interest following Google searches for the term "Bitcoin" around the world. You can see how in 2020/2021 we came close to peaks that were far from where we are now and it is curious to note that when Bitcoin exceeded $50k for the first time, retail interest was in ATH.

Therefore, it can be said that the market cycle that has just begun is somewhat anomalous compared to the previous one. Currently, in fact, there are large institutional players who are accumulating large quantities of BTC and seem to have started an early bull-run. In fact, an attack on the ATH more than a month before the halving had never happened before. Furthermore, one should never forget that the current issuance of around 900 BTC per day will soon be halved to 450, thus making Bitcoin one of the scarcest assets in the world. Such a reduction in daily issuance, combined with the growth that Bitcoin's capitalization is having, leaves no room for many doubts about the price trend. According to the simple law of supply and demand, in fact, even if demand did not increase but remained the same, the price would have to at least double to make up for the lack of circulating supply. I would therefore close the article by remembering that it is never a good idea to let yourself be overcome by fear as this often leads to risky and poorly thought-out choices.

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