When talking price of BFG I'm always focused on the daily dividend payments and the APR at that moment. However, there is of course more at play for the price mechanics than dividends alone. And even with dividends, I feel we tend to ignore the monthly pool replenishments a bit too much.
So when I noticed the price of BFG break out of it's downward trending channel, I thought it is noteworthy to see if it is now a good time to buy more BFG
Current APR
Checking the APR for current dividend payment and BFG price is always a good starting point.
APR has been hovering between 90% and slightly above 100% for quit a while. This seems a very reasonable return considering all the other options you have with staking, yield farming etc.
Upcoming pool replenishment
When looking at BFG price and APR, we should also take into account expected future div payments. While we can't know how much people will wager on the site in the future, we can check how much will be added to the pools in the first week of next month.
When we check the subtokens for the pools we can see that the replenishment will be around 22.5% in total. This is huge and would mean APR would go up towards 120% with current BFG price.
In order to get back to 95% APR, we could expect a price for BFG of $0.038
Overall div trend
We should also consider the overall div payment trend. This has been declining slightly lately, so we should probably aim a bit below $0.038 as target price based on near future divs
Technical Analysis
When looking at the price trend of BFG we can see it currently breaking out of the downwards trend channel. This is in line with what we can expect in terms of future div payments and keeping the APR somewhat in line with the current range slightly below 100%
How far we'll go up is always hard to say, but I see a price of 0.037 as next target. We'll probably not break this resistance there unless we see some big increase in div payments or a further steep increase in btc, eth, trx and bnb prices.
Conclusion
I expect a price of $0.037 to be easily possible to achieve for BFG in the upcoming days. This would mean an increase of 16% over the current price of around $0.032. Not huge, but still a nice (and easy?) profit
