Virtual currency market analysis
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of the crypto asset (virtual currency) exchange BitMEX, stated on the 24th that the support line for Bitcoin (BTC) is between $30,000 (approximately 4.4 million yen) and $35,000 (approximately 516 million yen). He expressed his opinion that the amount was 10,000 yen).
We predict a 30% correction from the $48,000 (approximately 7 million yen) that rose on the back of US spot ETFs (exchange traded funds). Hayes explained that he had purchased a $35,000 Bitcoin put option that expired on March 29th. He also expects the stock to fall below $35,000 if things don’t go according to the basic scenario, in which case he says he will start buying at the bottom.
What is option trading?
A type of derivatives trading that also involves assets other than virtual currencies. Trading the “right” to buy or sell a specific asset on a predetermined date in the future at a price agreed at the present time. The difference is that while futures trading is a contract to buy and sell, options trading deals with rights.
connection: “Cash ETFs could destroy the Bitcoin network” Arthur Hayes’ thoughts
Regarding the future of the virtual currency market, he once again focused on developments in US monetary policy. He said that it is important to pay attention to changes in the liquidity of the US dollar when predicting the market price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
First, Hayes points out that depending on the U.S. Treasury’s actions regarding the Quarterly Auction of U.S. Treasuries (QRA) and the Treasury General Account (TGA), the market may be supported by liquidity in the U.S. dollar that the market did not expect. are doing. He explained that QRA will be announced on the 31st of this month.
He also pointed out that what is important is the amount of liquidity. In the event that the U.S. Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) is not renewed in March, it will be important to determine whether banks have the liquidity to prevent bank failures. Says.
Mr. Hayes has been paying attention to BTFP for some time. He predicted this month that some banks could fail if the BTFP is not renewed.
connection:Why Arthur Hayes predicts a sharp fall in Bitcoin in March What are the three major events to watch?
This time, Hayes has expressed the view that the BTFP will not be renewed, citing the fact that Treasury Secretary Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have never mentioned renewal. If not renewed, banks would have to repay a total of about $200 billion (about $3 billion).
If renewed, the bank said it would close the put option and continue selling government bonds and buying cryptocurrencies to maximize the risk of cryptocurrencies.
At the beginning of the web page where he published this article, Mr. Hayes states that the contents are his personal views and do not constitute investment advice.
connection: Arthur Hayes, considering how to use Bitcoin spot ETF and the outlook for the market price
altcoin investment
In addition to purchasing Bitcoin put options, he also announced that he had closed positions in Solana (SOL) and Solana’s meme coin Bonk. He explains that there was a slight loss.
He also said that if Bitcoin drops below $35,000, he will buy Solana and Solana’s meme coin WIF.
connection: International version of BINANCE lists perpetual futures of Solana meme coin “WIF”
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