Has Bitcoin put in a market cycle top?
Are we following the 2013 or 2017 market cycle?
Let's analyze.
Bitcoin 2013 vs Now.
Correlation has been pretty close since 2016-present. Based on recent 2021 price action, looks like we could be set up to follow with a double-peak pattern and blowoff top late into 2021/early 2022. We could experience a consolidation/re-accumulation pattern over the next 2-4 months.
Bitcoin 2017 vs Now.
Looking at a single 4-year crypto market cycle from bottom to top. If this week was the "first selloff," we could see a V-shaped recovery and a period of consolidation that could take a couple months before we match the current ATH or see new highs. Seems to imply Q3 & Q4 could be extremely bullish for Bitcoin and crypto.
ETH Now vs BTC in 2017.
This is a particularly interesting correlation because we're comparing two completely different assets at different points in their respective timelines. However, it's because ETH is younger than BTC that it is often considered to be "one cycle behind" BTC. What does this mean? As you can see below, ETH has been roughly tracking the price performance of BTC in 2017, very concise in some times and a little less in others. If the 2017 BTC chart is any indication as to what may lie ahead for ETH in this market cycle, then we could be staring down a $10K - $20K ETH within the next 6-12months.
Big thanks for Raoul Pal for posting these charts.
