If you have been following $AMPL over the past month, you might have noticed that it has been pretty quiet as it mainly sat within negative rebase territory. In fact, since around December 9th, 2020, all AMPL holders saw 40% days of negative rebases, 40% no rebases and only 4 positive ones;
Source: DuneAnalytics
On some of these days, particularly recently, the negative rebase equaled over 2% - meaning everybody lost 2% of their total AMPL holdings on each of these days.
The reason for these negative-2% rebases is to do with the fact that $AMPL is sitting beneath the $0.96 negative rebase threshold. When the price for $AMPL dips beneath here, daily negative rebases set in according to how low it goes. The negative rebases will continue until it climbs back above $0.96 - at which point, the rebases stop until the $AMPL price goes back above $1.06.
$AMPL dipped beneath the $0.96 level earlier this week after it fell from around $1.20 at the start of the year. It continued to fall further beneath $0.96 until support was found yesterday at around $0.78. This level provided strong support for the market during October and December 2020, and it seems that $AMPL could potentially rebound from here again;
Source: Santiment Dashboard
With over a month worth of almost consistent negative/neutral rebases, combined with the recent rebound from support, one question comes to mind;
Is $AMPL finally set for a rebound?
Now, before I show you some technical analysis charts, I would like to make one thing clear. I am fully aware that typical technical analysis strategies do not work in $AMPL due to its constant rebasing mechanism. The TA charts just show price against time - it does not take account of the continually changing supply levels for $AMPL.
However, although typical trading strategies might not work, technical analysis remains the same. Trend lines, Fibonacci Levels, breakout patterns, momentum indicators, and support & resistance levels are all still applicable to the AMPL chart. It is just the basic trading strategies based on these technical tools that need tweaking for $AMPL.
Now that I have that out of the way, this is what I have my eyes on for $AMPL over the coming weeks;
I've marked the major support line that saw 4 decent rebounds in the past year. It looks like $AMPL hit it for the 5th time.
Source: TradingView
The chart above shows AMPL since August 2020. The two horizontal dashed orange lines represent the boundaries for the positive/negative rebasing mechanism. We can see during November, the price was mainly above the upper border of the rebase mechanism, leading to positive rebases daily;
Source: DuneAnalytics
These positive rebases continued through until the first week of December. The price of $AMPL had pushed higher but struggled to break resistance at $1.70 - provided by a bearish .5 Fib Retracement.
From there, $AMPL started to head lower ad eventually plummeted beneath the $.96 level as the negative rebases started.
Toward the end of 2020, $AMPL managed to find solid support at around $0.78. This level provided resistance for the market during most of the days in August and September 2020. In October 2020, it flipped from resistance into support.
After re-visiting this support at the end of 2020, AMPL held there for almost a week before it started to rebound again in the final week of December 2020.
In January 2020, $AMPL was unable to surpass the $1.20 level and started heading lower in the last week. It found support at $0.78 on Monday, 11th January, and has held at this support since. It began to rebound from here on January 13th, and it might be signaling that $AMPL is finally set to rebound and head back toward the positive rebasing territory.
It is almost as if the whales are watching $AMPL bleed and have been waiting for this support before they begin rebuying to bring $AMPL back into positive rebase territory. The support at $0.78 seems like a solid level for whales to start buying up $AMPL again and start a new cycle of positive rebases.
In the unlikely event that $AMPL does slip beneath $0.78, there is additional support at $0.7, $0.67, $0.64, and $0.55 - although, I highly doubt we would be heading that low.
Other Buying-Opportunity Signals
Going deeper into some on-chain analysis, there seems to a period of quiet activity. Although some may see these as red flags, I like to call it; the moment nobody likes to talk about - your buying opportunity.
The first thing I would like to show is that “the crowd” are continuing to buy up $AMPL and hold onto their bags;
Source: Santiment $AMPL Small Holders
The chart shows that small-time bag holders with between 10 to 1000 $AMPL continue to rise as the number of wallets with these holdings increases.
Looking at the whale wallets, it seems that the smaller whales with between 1000 and 100,000 $AMPL are starting to decrease. Meanwhile, the number of larger whales with over 100,000 $AMPL remains pretty steady;
Source: Santiment $AMPL Whale Holdings
Looking at additional on-chain activity, there has been a small uptick in the number of daily active wallets;
Source: Santiment - Daily Active Addresses
Although it is a far cry from the November peaks, the recent surge in activity is a promising sign - especially combined with the recent bounce from the $0.78 support level. I kind of have a feeling that the most recent spikes that we are seeing in Daily Active Addresses might be to do with PUBLISH0X considering that the spikes seem to align with the payout dates from Publish0x tips.
The uptick in the number of daily active wallets also translates into a strong network growth recently;
Conclusion
These signals combined seem to point to the fact that $AMPL is now finally done with the recent cycle of negative rebases. If it can remain above the $0.78 support and start bouncing higher from here, we can expect a string of positive rebases to hit wallets pretty soon.
