Bitcoin fell a bit during the week ending March 21st, dipping briefly under the $55K level before the buyers quickly stepped in to buy the dip, sending Bitcoin back up near the highs around $57K - $58K. While technically a red candle, Bitcoin continues to recover from short-term dips and is knocking on the door of $60K, which it has been contesting with over the past few weeks, and will likely not hold much longer.
(March 21, 2021 8:00PM EST)
Short-Term:
Bitcoin's bearish start to the week turned around quickly and has since rallied back to just under the highs, attempting to pierce the $60K level again in the near-term. Given Bitcoin's recent correction, higher low, and strong recovery, we should see continued bullishness and attempts to breach $60K in the next week or so, which is not a significant resistance level so we should see Bitcoin break higher by April the latest. Once Bitcoin breaks $60K, and it's really just a matter of time (days), we should see a run-up to $70K, $80K, and over the medium-term, $100K. But to keep things in perspective, $10K moves are likely to be the norm going forward.
After all, Bitcoin historically experiences seasonal weakness in Feb-March. If seasonality is any indication of what’s to come for Bitcoin, we should see Bitcoin gear up over the next few weeks for a precipitous rally to new highs in April-May but starting as early as late March. "The herd" of institutional investors is entering the space in rapid succession as we now regularly see weekly headlines from the likes of Morgan Stanley, Citi, etc. announcing 9+ figure interest in the space.
Returns by month — outliers excluded. Source: CoinMetrics, daily bitcoin price data for 18/07/2010 to 31/01/2020.
BTC Seasonal Performance Pattern Since July 2010 (Source: Tradingview)
Long-Term:
The confluence of my EWT Wave 3 projection and Bitcoin monthly seasonality points to a rally that could send Bitcoin to about $95K by summer 2021 and a possible cycle peak as early as Q4 2021 somewhere in the range of $125K, or possibly much, much higher.
My crude Elliott Wave count for Bitcoin on the weekly chart shows a possible $94,000 Wave 3 target for Bitcoin later in 2021. By that measure, based on the price action lately as shown above, we are well within the projection and en route to this projection, which should take some time to play out but may only accelerate as Bitcoin's market cap grows, thus enabling conservative institutions on the sidelines enough justification finally enter Bitcoin long positions. This also coincides with multiple other models, such as Plan B's Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model which plots a minimum $100K target that extends up to nearly $300K, as well as the logarithmic regression which projects a $115,000 - $140,000 Bitcoin price within the next year.
Weekly Newsflow:
- Coinbase announces IPO
- Morgan Stanley exploring acquisition of BitThumb for $2 billion
- Visa launches global partnership with CRYPTO.COM to offer fiat lending against crypto and convert cross-currency during spends
The bigger Bitcoin gets the more legitimacy it gains = more institutional investors can justify taking initial positions, which would only add to the disproportionate demand vs supply.
Support:
Immediate support around $55K.
Then $50K.
Then $45K.
Floor at $40K.
Resistance:
Immediate resistance at $60K, then $70K, $80K, then $100K.
