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Hi everyone and a happy start to 2022 to you all. Welcome to my first post of the new year in my 'How likely is it that I will I ever own a full Bitcoin?' series.
Like a lot of fellow crypto investors, my first sentiments on waiting patiently for the $100K BTC that never arrived - at least not yet - was disappointment. There were not many voices saying were going to go from $69k all the way down to $42k - a whopping 40% slide over the course of the last 7 weeks!
Doom and gloom has quickly spread throughout the rest of the crypto market too. Whilst I respectfully acknowledge that the total domination of BTC has begun to shift - so this won't necessarily always be the case - wherever BTC goes, the rest of the market tends to follow.
The folks that will not have fared well are those that have borrowed in the anticipation of the forecast upward movement. A few less Lambo's and desert island dreams coming to fruition and back to the drawing board for them. I hope they have followed the golden rules of diversification and/or can afford those losses but am suspecting that many won't have.
Looking at other events of 2021, April - July saw a fall from $64K - $30K, this time a +50% plunge. That one took 12 weeks for the trend to reverse, suggesting that this time we may have still further to go downwards.
There have also been another 3 ocasions where the BTC market price has dropped by something in the 20%-30% range.
It's not a secret that the metaphorical 'middle name' of crypto markets is 'volatility' - and this applies in bull/bear/sideways markets alike. As a relative newcomer to this field this was at first shocking - in previous investments I would steer well clear of such wild fluctuations - however I quickly took another view.
I don't know about you but I'm a long way off the amount of BTC that I want to eventually hold. Not having the risk appetite to snag a big lump in one go it's quickly occurred to me that the very last thing I want right now is for BTC to go to the moon - it doing so would make it even more difficult for me to own the full Bitcoin that is my primary goal.
To begin with I was a strict DCA buyer but the ups and downs gave me a further 5 buying opportunities and as we currently speak I'm now almost a third of the way there. If BTC takes off in the mean time then no problem - fancying that it won't become super-stable in the near future - there will be plenty more opportunities to buy.
2021 wasn't the year but suppose we have the faith that BTC will one day in the future hit the expected $six-figure values then volatility can be our friend. We have to have faith that any price at a discount of 20/30/40/50% is worth buying at.
So for now, it's time to AC-CUM-U-LATE as the Doctor's prime adversary might say.
Of course, I am not giving financial advice – other than don’t do it unless you can afford to lose your money – merely documenting my 'How likely is it that I will I ever own a full Bitcoin?' journey.
