When the same asset has been in operation for 4 years, which in the case of crypts is equivalent to about 15 years in the traditional market, it is possible to find tops and bottoms without an apparent reason.
By completing the 26% drop (in dollar terms) this week, taking us to the low of $ 47,600, I was sure that the worst was over. Yes, I monitor premium indicators on the future index daily, option skew, perpetual contract rate, margin cost, among others.
However, it is even more difficult to find tops and bottoms when you have so much data at hand. Rarely are the times that all indicators point to the same side. So, my certainty comes from experience, but I will gather some evidence here to make you feel calm.
Flat futures curve
This is very complex, but I'll try to summarize. The monthly futures contract usually trades with a premium (fat) for the price of conventional exchanges, since the seller is "stuck" until maturity. Think of it as a rental fee. What is natural is that longer contracts have a higher annualized rate than short ones.
