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This research writing is sponsored by Multi-Chain DeFi Liquidation Tracker, a decentralized finance (DeFi) data aggregator which tracks and analyses liquidation events across DeFi protocols of various blockchains in real time. While the app is still under development, you may follow their Twitter page for daily updates of liquidation statistics and charts.
If you have no time to read through all the details, here are the main takeaways from today's writing.
-> Elrond started 2022 with a bang, with announcement of tokenomics upgrade, launch of DeFi innovations inclusive of wallet, DEX, staking and yield farming, exploration of Play-and-Earn gaming model and being listed on a Korean exchange.
-> [Technical Analysis] All technical indicators are implying that EGLD was neither oversold nor overbought.
-> [Quantitative Risk Analysis] Value-at-Risk is suggesting that EGLD is now riskier to the downside as compared to 10 days ago.
-> On average, Elrond managed to attract 126 new Twitter followers and 15 new Reddit subscribers every day for the past 30 days.
-> Elrond's Google search metric increased by 28.97 % quarter-by-quarter with most searches coming from EU countries.
-> At the time of writing, Elrond futures are in a bear market as futures traders are dumping more volatile EGLD to buy more stable BTC.
1A. EGLD Project Updates
1. Introducing UTK 2.0 - The Tokenomics Upgrade That Will Transform The Utrust Token Into A Powerful Digital Currency Ready For Global Adoption (16 Feb 2022)
Utrust and Elrond announce a new economics model for UTK 2.0. The new model is designed to reshape payments, putting Utrust, its community and merchants at the epicenter. To achieve unprecedented growth, a shift in perspective is necessary, says Utrust CEO.
2. Discover The Elrond Universe In 9 Languages Via The Community Driven Elrond Wiki Project And Become A Contributing Member (27 Jan 2022)
Elrond Wiki aims to cover the entire Elrond ecosystem and make it easily accessible for everyone. Already available in 9 different languages such as English, French, Romanian, German, Spanish or Korean. Anyone can contribute to the Wiki! If you’re building on ElrOND, make sure to register your project or product there.
3. Introducing “Metabonding” - Community Building For Web3 Startups (14 Feb2022)
“Metabonding” is the ultimate community bootstrapping product for Web3 startups. 10% of the token supply of projects signing up for Metabonding will be split in two: half will go to the EGLD stakers and delegators, and the other half to the LKMEX stakers.
4. Web3 Gaming On Elrond: Knights Of Cathena Is Shaping The Next Generation Of Turn-Based Strategy Combat With Blockchain Technology (20 Jan 2022)
Knights of Cathena introduces a variation of the Play2Earn mechanism called Play-And-Earn. Players will compete in entertaining and challenging medieval battles. The game will fuse ESDTs and NFTs with its Noble Houses guild system, taking cooperative play at the next level.
5. ZoidPay Integrates EGLD Into Their Virtual Cards Payments Solution And Migrates Their Token To The Elrond Network (07 Feb 2022)
ZoidPay enables the creation of virtual cards which can be topped up with EGLD and other cryptocurrencies. Users can make purchases via the ZoidPay app and web extension, with additional features such as physical cards and in-store merchant solutions to follow shortly. $ZPAY will be migrated on the Elrond Network.
6. EGLD Has Been Listed By Leading Korean Exchange Bithumb. Trading LIVE! (10 Feb 2022)
EGLD trading is now live with KRW (Korean Won) and BTC. EGLD has been listed on Bithumb, one of the leading exchanges in South Korea that pulls in more than $1 billion USD in daily volume thanks to its popularity and performant platform.
7. The Maiar DeFi Wallet Is Live - Upgrade Your Web3 Experience (7 Jan 2022)
Maiar DeFi Wallet can be installed on Chrome, BRAVE and other Chromium browsers. It is a powerful version of Elrond Web Wallet that significantly accelerates interactions with dApps. It's specifically designed for power users that want to have an edge in Web3.
8. Open The Floodgates: New Markets Are Coming. The Maiar DEX Token Listing Process (25 Jan 2022)
Maiar Exchange has been designed as the economic engine of the Elrond Network ecosystem. A powerful set of DeFi primitives deployed on top of internet-scale blockchain technology will unlock a new era of growth for the digital economy.Projects building with ElRond technology will have the opportunity to enable access to their token for a broader audience.
9. Introducing Metastake: A Maiar DEX Innovation Combining Staking, Liquidity Providing And Yield Farming Into One Powerful Product. RIDE Metastaking Debuts In February. (01 Feb 2022)
Metastaking combines token staking, liquidity providing and yield farming into a powerful new product. The first Metastaking will be dedicated to the holoride RIDE token. The RIDE Metastake is scheduled to go live in February, pending successful public testing.
2. How Elrond Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?
Performance of All Layer 1 and Layer 2 Scaling Cryptos Under Quantdoge Watchlist since 2021 (Sorted by % Return)
EGLD has undergone 523.93% return from USD 26.0722 to USD 162.6726 since 01 Jan 2021. EGLD is the 11th best performing crypto assets among others here, with Fantom (FTM) being the leading project.
3. How Resilience Elrond Is Towards Bitcoin Crash Relative to Other Cryptos ?
Historically, all altcoins are somewhat dependent on Bitcoin price movement and it’s often the case where if Bitcoin falls, most altcoins would follow.Top 3 Cryptos That Are Most Resilient To Bitcoin Crash During Each of BTC 4 Largest Crashes in 2021
EGLD has proven resilience against BTC crash in 1 out of the 4 instances.
During the last 4 BTC market crashes,
When BTC dropped by -13.47 %, EGLD returned -32.14 % at 20 May 2021,
When BTC dropped by -13.13 %, EGLD returned -3.68 % at 22 January 2021,
When BTC dropped by -12.16 %, EGLD returned -5.89 % at 13 May 2021,
When BTC dropped by -11.39 %, EGLD returned -15.04 % at 22 June 2021
Technical Analysis on Elrond
VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when EGLD is closed at the end of every single day.
Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of EGLD (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).
Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of EGLD (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).
As of 20 Feb 2022, VWAP is suggesting that EGLD is now trending downward and is currently trading at a price that is way below its week-long and month-long volume weighted averages.
MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of EGLD closing price from its 12-day EMA.
As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that EGLD is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that EGLD is losing momentum.
As of 20 Feb 2022, MACD is suggesting that EGLD is losing momentum to the downside.
- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of EGLD
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of EGLD on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of EGLD from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of EGLD
Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that EGLD is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that EGLD is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity.
As of 20 Feb 2022, Bollinger Band is suggesting that EGLD is neither overbought nor oversold.
Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that EGLD is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that EGLD is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity.
As of 20 Feb 2022, RSI is suggesting that EGLD is neither overbought nor oversold.
4.5. Price and Volume Analysis
EGLD has more daily active trading volumes now in Feb 2022 as compared to last month when its was in a bear market. Large buying volumes were observed last week between 9 Feb to 11 Feb 2022, which pushed the price up high that day before reversing to current downward trend. Although EGLD is in a downward trend now, its selling volumes are not as significant as the previous buying volumes during Elrond's bull run, an indication that the large buyers of EGLD may still hold on to it despite the fall in price now.
Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge is neutral on EGLD, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.
5. Elrond Risk Profile
Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Elrond defined above, EGLD seems to trade at a greater risk level on 20 Feb 2022 as compared to 10 days before on 10 Feb 2022, with its biggest pullback being seen at -18.8% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.
Based on the probability distribution chart of EGLD's daily return, the chart has shifted left as compared to 10 days ago, where there is now a slightly higher chance for EGLD to lose 10% or more. This would mean that EGLD is now riskier towards the downside.
6. EGLD Community Analytics
Number of EGLD Followers In The Last 30 Days
In the last 30 days alone, Elrond followers have grown 4.63 % from 447,535.0 to 468,266.0 on Twitter and grown 3.12 % from 14,592 to 15,047 on Reddit.
Daily increment of Elrond Twitter followers peaked on 03 Feb 2022 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 13 Feb 2022.
On average, Elrond managed to attract 126 new Twitter followers and 15 new Reddit subscribers every day for the past 30 days.
7. Google Trends Analytics
"elrond" reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-02-07 with a Google Score of 100
Over the last quarter, "elrond" Google Score has increased 28.97 % from 26.75 to 34.5
Over the last 6 months, "elrond" Google Score has increased 51.65 % from 22.75 to 34.5Over the past 30 days, "elrond" was mostly sought after from the EU countries, with Romania taking the lead, followed by Luxembourg and Cyprus.
8. Developer Activity Analytics
Fork refers to the amount of time where the Github repo of current cryptocurrency is being copied. Higher fork number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more interest in the developers community who likes to explore more on the deep technical of this project.
Elrond forks increased 56.52% from 92 to 144 in the past year.
Star refers to the number of developers who bookmark the Github repo of current cryptocurrency. Higher star number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more general interest in the developers community.
Elrond stars increased 48.21% from 531 to 787 in the past year.
Pull Request
Pull request contributor refers to developer who has made a successful improvements/ modifications on the Github repo of this current cryptocurrency project. Higher number of pull request contributors could mean that there is a high number of commitment given by developers to this cryptocurrency project.
However, a low number also could mean that the developer community of this project applies a strict standard when it comes to code review, so only developers who have published a high quality code with highly impactful features got approved.
Elrond pull request contributors increased 44.0% from 25 to 36 in the past year.
9. BINANCE Futures Activities
EGLDUSDT futures have relatively more buyers than the sellers in this month of February.
EGLDUSDT long-short ratios remain consistently higher than BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT futures. However, on 21 Feb, a lot of EGLD long traders are exiting their positions while EGLD short traders are building up their short positions as the market is dumping a smaller cap EGLD to buy a mega cap OG like ETH and BTC which deemed as safer crypto assets. Please take note that this long-short ratio is simply just dividing the number of accounts who are long by the number of accounts who are short, without taking any buy/ sell volume into consideration.
At the time of writing, the crypto futures market is in a "risk-off" mode now with sell volumes building up on more volatile EGLDUSDT futures while the buy volumes were building up on the less volatile BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT futures for the past few hours.
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