08 jan 2022 (sat)- cosmos (atom) report card

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1A. Top 3 Good News for ATOM HODLERS !!!

  • New Cosmos, Mastercard projects to boost Ethereum scalability

    Statistic as of 2022-01-08 04:38 AM EDT: 39 positive votes, 2 negative votes

    With Ethereum usage at all-time high, a Cosmos ‘bridge’ to other blockchains and Mastercard rollups aim to solve a major problem plaguing the Eth network.

    (Extracted from Crypto Panic

  • Tendermint CEO Peng Zhong on how the Cosmos ecosystem is connecting a multi-chain world

    Statistic as of 2022-01-08 04:38 AM EDT: 10 positive votes, 0 negative vote

    (Extracted from Crypto Panic

  • Cosmos (ATOM) Eyes All-Time High as Price Approaches $40

    Statistic as of 2022-01-08 04:38 AM EDT: 8 positive votes, 0 negative vote

    Cosmos (ATOM) has broken out from its consolidation pattern and reclaimed a crucial horizontal area. It is closing in on a new all-time high price.

    (Extracted from Crypto Panic

2. How Cosmos Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

Performance of All Cryptos Under Quantdoge Watchlist in 2021 (Sorted by % Return)

ATOM has undergone 522.83% return from USD 6.4562 to USD 40.2112 since 01 Jan 2021. ATOM* is the 15th best performing crypto assets among others here.

3. How Resilience Cosmos Is Towards Bitcoin Crash Relative to Other Cryptos ?

Historically, all altcoins are somewhat dependent on Bitcoin price movement and it’s often the case where if Bitcoin falls, most altcoins would follow.Top 3 Cryptos That Are Most Resilient To Bitcoin Crash During Each of BTC 4 Largest Crashes in 2021

ATOM has proven resilience against BTC crash in 0 out of the 4 instances.

During the last 4 BTC market crashes,

When BTC dropped by -13.47 %, ATOM returned -38.76 % at 20 May 2021,

When BTC dropped by -13.13 %, ATOM returned -18.99 % at 22 January 2021,

When BTC dropped by -12.16 %, ATOM returned -14.01 % at 13 May 2021,

When BTC dropped by -11.39 %, ATOM returned -19.38 % at 22 June 2021           

4. Technical Analysis on Cosmos

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when ATOM is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ATOM (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ATOM (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 07 Jan 2022, VWAP is suggesting that ATOM is gaining momentum while its close price has now exceeded its volume-weighted average.

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of ATOM closing price from its 12-day EMA. 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that ATOM is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that ATOM is losing momentum. 

As of 07 Jan 2022, MACD is suggesting that ATOM is gaining momentum.

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of ATOM

- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of ATOM on SMA (20)

- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of ATOM from SMA (20)

- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of ATOM

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that ATOM is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that ATOM is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 07 Jan 2022, Bollinger Band is suggesting that ATOM is neither overbought nor oversold.

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that ATOM is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that ATOM is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 07 Jan 2022, RSI is suggesting that ATOM is neither overbought nor oversold.

4.5. Price and Volume

ATOM price and traded volumes have confirmed that there is a fair chance that ATOM is trading in an upward trend as its increasing price trend is supported by a growing volume. 

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge is bullish on ATOM, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

5. Cosmos Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Cosmos defined above, ATOM seems to trade at a similar risk level on 07 Jan 2022 as compared to 10 days before on 28 Dec 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -16.17% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

Price Simulation for Cosmos

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual ATOM price movement over the last week ?

Over the last 7 days, ATOM is trading beyond the higher 75th percentile of all quantdoge simulations, indicating that ATOM is relatively overbought.

7. ATOM Community Analytics

Number of ATOM Followers In The Past 24 Months

During the past 24 months, Cosmos followers have grown 901.29 % from 29,665 to 297,032 on Twitter and grown 578.39 % from 7,782 to 52,792 on Reddit.

Number of ATOM Followers In The Last 30 Days

In the last 30 days alone, Cosmos followers have grown 10.12 % from 269,724 to 297,032 on Twitter and grown 9.99 % from 47,995 to 52,792 on Reddit.

Daily increment of Cosmos Twitter followers peaked on 07 Jan 2022 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 04 Jan 2022. Overall, there is an average of 807 new followers who subscribed to Cosmos Twitter daily, and 165 new followers who subscribed to Cosmos Reddit daily.

8. Google Trends Analytics

cosmos network reached its peak in Google Search on 2022-01-02 with a Google Score of 100

Over the last quarter, cosmos network Google Score has increased 238.98 % from 29.5 to 100.0

Over the last 6 months, cosmos network Google Score has increased 449.45 % from 18.2 to 100.0

Over the last month, cosmos network is most saught after on Google from United Kingdom, followed by Canada and Turkey.

United Kingdom and Canada are classified by World Bank as high-income nations, hence, a high interest from these 2 geographical regions are bullish to ATOM as their citizens are likely to have higher risk appetite and more spare cash to venture into the crypto space.

9. Developer Activity Analytics

Fork refers to the amount of time where the Github repo of current cryptocurrency is being copied. Higher fork number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more interest in the developers community who likes to explore more on the deep technical of this project.

Cosmos forks increased 32.43% from 185 to 245 in the past year.

Star refers to the number of developers who bookmark the Github repo of current cryptocurrency. Higher star number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more general interest in the developers community.

Cosmos stars increased 14.55% from 907 to 1,039 in the past year.

Pull Request

Pull request contributor refers to developer who has made a successful improvements/ modifications on the Github repo of this current cryptocurrency project. Higher number of pull request contributors could mean that there is a high number of commitment given by developers to this cryptocurrency project.

However, a low number also could mean that the developer community of this project applies a strict standard when it comes to code review, so only developers who have published a high quality code with highly impactful features got approved.

Cosmos' number of pull request contributors remained stagnant at 21 in the past year.

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If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.

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