You may have noticed my conspicuous absence on here in the last week or so?
As those of you who follow me know, I have been pretty upbeat over that last few weeks seeing gains on my portfolio of more than 10% and then without warning the clanging bells of the apocalypse sounded and devastation greater than that which hit Kings Landing befell my portfolio
Suddenly without warning I went from +110% to at the worst 86% and there was absolutely no warning. Sure there were indicators that some currencies were due a significant correction (TEZOs, BATs, Chainlink and Band among others), but not all currencies had seen such massive accelerations in their prices to warrant a wholesale collapse; the worst I have experienced since I started trading and apparently the worst since March
One thing that did help was that I had actively started moving profits to DAI, which not only are staking, but ironically actually increased slightly in value. I am wondering if this was more than a coincidence as investors sought to stablise their crypto holdings using the principles I described in Putting the Brakes on.
I thought I had done my due diligence and steered away from overpriced currencies (for example buying Augur at ?16.xx, but no higher has generally been good up till now – just check the price for today 10th September 2020). I was also avoiding vulnerable currencies like Ethereum Classic, which while I am not totally clear on the facts, was under pressure due to stories of a series hack. Additionally profits were being stabilised and momentum was good.
I was shellshocked. Where the hell had that come from?
Such a shift can wipe out months of steady consolidated building. It was a tornado and I, like many others, was in tornado alley.
It is easy to be wise after the event and if at 110% I had shifted EVERYTHING into DAI I would have been in such an advantageous position now with deflated prices still continuing to dominate. But I hadn’t seen it coming and was yielding greater profits which were effectively being consolidated through DAI staking. I was blindsided.
In this position it wasn’t particularly helpful for a commentator to say ‘Buy low – it’s easy!’
Easier said than done when your crypto is already tied up and to shift it would be accepting double figure percentage losses before starting to rebuild.
So what are the indicators suggesting. After such a down drop the short term looks quite bleak with most crypto predictors I use still suggesting shrinkage. However over the last day or two there are some subtle hints of a steady increase in prices and the shock begins to wear off.
I don’t believe this will be a V-shaped recovery and it probably won’t be until at least mid-October that we see a return to previous prices – if not longer. It may not be until the end of the year, but in the meantime I am HODLing the tornado out in the basement of my patience. Bizarrely I experienced the exact opposite to FUD as my long term confidence remains unchanged. There are some indicators that things are turning as each up-down cycle is cycling upwards slowly, slowly and if some commentators are to believed BitCoin is due a run, although the same commentators were predicting a run a week or so ago so do your own research and don't take my word for it.
So why have I come back to life after a week or so of absence?
It’s very simple I only write when I have got something to say and there are analysts far better qualified, with more knowledge and more experienced than I. It was their views that needed to be heard and I didn’t want to clog the NEW Posts page up with what is essentially white noise when more essential information needed to get out.
As many of you know I am very community focussed…
Have a good day and I hope the sun comes out again soon…
