Содержание статьи:
- Kanye West hopes to equip the presidential administration on the model of Wakanda
- Brock Pierce is betting on technology
- Trump and Biden on cryptocurrencies
- How the presidential race affects the cryptocurrency market
- Finally
Two cryptocurrency proponents - crypto billionaire Brock Pierce and rapper Kanye West - have announced their intention to run for president of the United States in 2020. Their victory could contribute to a change in the policy of the country's authorities regarding cryptocurrencies. However, they have little chance of not only winning, but even registering. The current president, Donald Trump, has long been known as an adversary of bitcoin. His opponent in the November elections, Democrat Joe Biden, on most issues expresses a diametrically opposite point of view and believes in the power of technology. However, the stock and cryptocurrency markets fear its victory due to uncertainty. The already difficult struggle for the White House is exacerbated by the ongoing pandemic and recession, which also affect the crypto industry.
Kanye West hopes to equip the presidential administration on the model of Wakanda
Kanye West is an American rapper, producer, entrepreneur and husband Kim Kardashian. On July 5, he announced his intention to compete for the presidency in November this year as an independent candidate.
This is not the first time that West has announced his intention to run for president. Back in 2015, he said that he was going to compete for this post in 2020. But last November he specified that he intended to run for office only in 2024. However, it is obvious that the rapper decided - he has a chance of success this year too.
The 43-year-old West may well qualify for the presidency - he fits all the criteria. But this year he has little chance of being registered. In order for an independent candidate to be on the ballot, he needs to register in every US state. But West has already missed the last few deadlines for registration in six states - so he can not qualify for at least 102 votes of the electoral college of 538. West needs to hurry up so as not to lose another 85 votes - in July the deadlines for voting are running out seven states. In addition, he still has not applied for the nomination of his candidacy to the Federal Election Commission.
West can also register from one of the other US parties. True, no party has yet expressed support for the entrepreneur. Another opportunity to win the election is to convince voters to write their own candidate on the ballot. This is allowed in the USA - sometimes local elections win in the country this way. But on a national scale, there was nothing like this. Also, West needs to hire a staff of volunteers to collect signatures to run for the elections - but the registration deadline expires in August-September.
In an interview with Forbes on July 8, West revealed the details of his campaign. He stated that he no longer supported Donald Trump, but praised his achievements and criticized his opponent from the Democrats Joe Biden. In case of victory, West promised to turn the White House into a government structure, similar to that shown in the fictional country of Wakanda from Marvel films. The entrepreneur intends to develop medical innovations, but noted that he considers vaccination against coronavirus “implantation of chips” and opposed abortion. West also hopes to return “fear and love of God” to American schools and government organizations.
The entrepreneur is determined: “ Like everything that I have ever done in my life, I am nominating myself to win ... If I win in 2020, then this was God's appointment. If I win in 2024, then that will be God's appointment, ”he said in an interview.
West admitted that he has no election machinery yet, but he is going to create his own party called the “Birthday Party”. Now his advisers are Kim Kardashian and Ilon Mask , who publicly supported the rapper. However, on July 8, after the interview was released, Musk said that their views differ too much. In an interview, West said that he had been ill with a coronavirus in February and believes that this will help him solve the problem of missing the deadlines for submitting an application.
In the crypto community, West is believed to be a proponent of cryptocurrencies, although he hardly mentioned them. In an interview in 2018, he said that he did not like the $ 20 bill, as it depicted Andrew Jackson, the seventh president of the United States and a slave owner. Looking at her, he thought about using bitcoin. Shortly before the interview, he also wrote on Twitter on decentralization.
In any case, there are still few chances of his victory and even registration. Director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia Larry Sabato believes that even with a serious election campaign, Kanye West’s election results would hardly have exceeded a few percent of the vote, the margin from Trump and Biden would still be large. Most likely, Kanye West or someone else has already missed the opportunity to have some influence on the course of the presidential race.
Brock Pierce is betting on technology
Brock Pierce is a prominent figure in the crypto world. He is an entrepreneur, venture investor, billionaire and co-founder of several dozen companies, including EOS Alliance, Block.one, Blockchain, Tether and Mastercoin.
Pierce also announced his decision to run for president as an independent candidate on July 5. So far, the entrepreneur has not presented his own election program. On his election site there are slogans “Vote for our future”, “Leadership. Experience. Values ??”and a call to follow him on Twitter, but there are no specific offers.
“ I spent my life creating great things out of nothing, and I can help others do the same. Entrepreneurs are needed to rebuild this country that we love, and I am participating in this race because I know that together we can help build the path to the revival of America that we love so much , ”Pierce said in a press release.
In his election video, Pierce promised to use technology to improve institutions and living conditions and hinted at cryptocurrencies. “ If our government used the technology of the 21st century, all incentive payments would have been received by needy people much earlier, ” he said, hinting that the United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS) was faced with the problem of delivering incentive checks to Americans.
“We should adopt technologies, and not be afraid of them .... Technology is a decision that we must actively use. What served us in the past will not serve us in the future, ”Pierce said in a video announcing his nomination.
Pierce's victory would undoubtedly be a celebration for the crypto community - one could hope for significant improvements for the better. But, unfortunately, this is an extremely unlikely outcome. As in the case of the West, Pierce missed registration deadlines in several states, although he filed documents with the Federal Election Commission. Therefore, his chances of joining the race are slim. The chances of victory are even less - he is little known to the general voter. In addition, in 2000, Pierce was accused by employees of his former company of forced sex. Although prosecutors abandoned their claims, the voter may decide that "there is no smoke without fire."
Be that as it may, the crypto community supported Pierce. If Kanye West and Brock Pierce do indeed participate in the presidential election, collectible tokens will be issued on Cardano - one for each vote they cast. This was announced on July 5 by project co-founder Charles Hoskinson.
Trump and Biden on cryptocurrencies
Recall that the presidential election in the United States will be held in November this year. Acting President Donald Trump will speak from the Republicans, and the most likely candidate from the Democrats is Joe Biden. The latter won the race among party members, beating the more radical Bernie Sanders.
In July 2019, Trump announced that he was not a fan of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, did not consider them money and was sure that the benefit from them was only in illegal activities. And earlier, in 2018, Trump signed a decree prohibiting U.S. citizens and companies from buying and using the Venezuelan cryptocurrency Petro. Moreover, in February of this year, the White House published the budget of the US government, which contains Trump's proposals to strengthen supervision of cryptocurrencies, namely the opportunity to give the Treasury more power over the crypto industry and increase funding for the US Financial Crimes Unit (FinCEN) for struggle with cryptocurrencies. In June this year, the media published excerpt from a book by former National Security Advisor John Bolton, which details how Trump suggested that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin tackle bitcoin regulation in May 2018.
“I'm not a fan of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies that are not money and whose value is highly volatile and based on rarefied air. Non-regulated crypto assets can contribute to illegal activities, including drug trafficking and other offenses ... ”, Trump wrote last year on his favorite Twitter. In subsequent posts, he rebuked the Facebook Libra project as well.
Joe Biden was vice president from 2009–2017 under the reign of Barack Obama. It seems that so far he has not expressed his attitude to cryptocurrencies in public. But some of his comments and actions may give us clues about what Biden’s presidency would mean for the crypto sector.
Biden is known as a big fan of technology and innovation - he believes that they made America great. In addition, as an opponent of Trump, he takes the opposite position on most issues with the republican administration. So it is likely that once in the presidency, Biden would to one degree or another support the crypto industry. At the very least, crypto media perceive Biden as a person more loyal to cryptocurrencies than Trump.
How the presidential race affects the cryptocurrency market
If Trump wins, it is likely that the White House exchange rate regarding cryptocurrencies will not change - we will be waiting for more regulation without any relaxation. However, this should not be very frustrating. In the end, it was under Trump that Bitcoin reached its market peaks, and the largest platforms should already be regulated.
The arrival of Biden could turn the course towards less overregulated. The victorious democrat would have to act more loyally to the crypto industry, at least as opposed to Trump's position.
However, according to analysts at Wells Fargo Securities, Biden’s victory will negatively affect the course of bitcoin and the stock market. The favorable tax environment and corporate incentives have contributed to the growth of the stock market over the past few years. Biden’s policies could exacerbate the crisis caused by the pandemic due to increased taxes and other changes that could result from a change in the ruling party. Over the past few months, bitcoin has been closely correlated with the S&P 500 index - they are falling and growing together. If the correlation persists and Biden’s victory lowers the stock market, this may affect the first cryptocurrency.
We will take into account that the influence that any president can have on the economy and the market depends on his ability to adopt legislative acts. For Biden to be able to radically change course, he needs control over the House of Representatives and the Senate. So far, Republicans prevail in both houses of parliament and the chances of an increase in the number of Democrats are slim. This could be a significant deterrent to some of Biden’s most radical proposals.
However, analysts at JPMorgan believe that Biden’s victory, on the contrary, could be a positive development for the stock market. Optimism is based on the belief that the coronavirus will force him to moderate the most radical provisions of his campaign, for example, raising corporate taxes. As a result, American businesses will not have new obstacles.
Historically, the volatility of the S&P 500 usually increases before the election, and now the situation is exacerbated due to the uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Markets also tend to react more positively immediately after the election of a republican president, since party policy is generally considered more favorable to the industry. But this, of course, is not an iron rule, and now the pandemic and the recession that has begun have a much greater impact on the markets.
Finally
We will not go into the analysis of the chances of victory for Trump and Biden. Judging by the polls, they are almost on a par: periodically, one of them breaks ahead, but not one of them has a decisive advantage. At the time of publication, judging by opinion polls, Biden is 8% ahead of Trump. But, most likely, the outcome of the vote will be decided at the last moment - in 2020, everything changes so quickly that forecasting autumn events is a futile task.
There are interesting statistics: when the S&P 500 index grows three months before the election, the current party most often wins, when it falls, the current president usually loses. Now, after the March phenomenal rebound, the markets have again gone down.
However, according to other statistics, the current US president is usually re-elected for a second term. But COVID-19, unemployment and rioting due to police brutality against black Americans are clearly playing against Trump.
