To say anything than the last month and a half to two months in Congress has been pure insanity would be an outright lie but finally with a Speaker in place and policy starting to move again. The next biggest thing is clear and that is passing another continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government past next Saturday and once that is done the House will likely finish up voting on the 12 spending bills and send them to the Senate. This will kick-start the conference with the Senate where the compromise between the two chambers will be hashed out.
One of these 12 bills has slowly but surely becoming a more and more likely vehicle for cryptocurrency legislation to be passed. The National Defense Authorization Act of 2024 is the vehicle that both chambers have commented on using and this in itself is a huge win because several different routes could have been taken as a vehicle to usher in this clarity. Since both sides have already passed their versions and crypto was not addressed really in it when the sides go the conference it is likely that both the House and Senate will bring their vision or version to the table.
Here is where it should be noted though that while both sides want to and both sides agree on a lot the leaders of the push from the House and Senate (Rep. Patrick McHenry and Sen. Elizabeth Warren) could not be further apart in how they view crypto with Warren known to be particularly critical of the industry. Luckily for us in crypto though she is facing a HUGE losing battle because, at the end of the day, she does not have anywhere near the level of bipartisan support that Rep. McHenry's legislation does. This means that while we might not get as throughout and complete legislation as we had hoped for this month we also shouldn't get any crazy bad legislation either.
It will be really interesting to see how the markets react to this news especially as it develops and plays out. You will hear both side's extremes but neither side's extremes are going to make it and instead, we will end up with some sort of guidance or clarity for the industry. It won't be groundbreaking like removing the SEC from crypto but it could be dealing with protecting miners from overreach and clarifying BTC and ETH specific roles.
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