tl;dr: the physical risks of Covid have wide awareness. So do the economic risks. What about the mental health risks?
I frequently hear people say things like “most people” or “people believe X or Y” and I shudder.
If crypto has taught me anything, it’s that without financial skin in the game, predictions are of significantly reduced value. Hence the need for prediction markets.
So, I am fully aware that whatever comments I make about “most people” is as contained within a micro-bubble as the next person’s. I guess it’s not really a prediction, more an observation.
Mental Health Costs of Trauma
There was a probably a point for many people in the US in mid to late 1942 that World War II wasn’t going to just “be over” any time soon.
After Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, there was initial shock and dismay. Then, the rapid reorganization of society to get on a war footing.
Then…life just went on for many, many people, where the war was both the story through the newsreels, but also the setting (i.e. you needed ration cards and that’s just how it was).
At some point, it became the “new normal.”
The question on my mind is: what was the mental adjustment like? How painful was it? How did it impact psyches for the rest of their lives?
Undoubtedly, there are a lot of research studies on these questions with all kind of conclusions.
The Covid Mental Impact
I get the sense from many with whom I speak (again, a very narrow band of people who have a large degree of financial buffer) that there’s a type of Covid Malaise.
People may enjoy not traveling as much and spending more time with their families. They appreciate their homes (if they have space, otherwise they are moving to the burbs) more. They love getting 2 hours a day back saved from commuting.
And yet….
And yet there’s a slow drain of energy because going somewhere, anywhere, requires so much effort.
I went to the periodontist the other day. Masks, gloves, protocols, temperature checks. You know the drill.
I had to put on layers of PPE just to drop my car off for an oil change.
I was walking down the street with a neighbor, just being friendly and she politely asked me to move farther away, as she’s older with pre-existing conditions.
I haven’t hugged my parents in months.
And I know I’m not alone.
Sure, these are minor inconveniences compared to being in a hospital or being in a war, but they are erosionary.
It’s like 1% better everyday, but 1% drained everyday.
Opportunities and Outcomes
If you become aware that this is happening, I suppose that is a good thing. You can start accepting that this IS the new normal.
Even then, it’s not easy.
But what about those of us who lose track of the fact that, daily, we’re feeling 1% more drained than we did yesterday?
Maybe on March 12th or March 27th, we were fine, but now…it’s the end of August and compound interest is kicking in.
I have to believe that riots, looting, anti-maskers, and many other behaviors we are seeing now are a result of the 1% erosion pushing people in more desperate ways.
I’m not a mental health expert at all, but we know that, for many years, there’s been a big stigma on these issues. Yes, it’s gotten better recently, but it is still out there.
Meanwhile, the mental strain for the country and the world is increasing.
When the pandemic is over, the pandemic may begin.
On the flip side, there’s going to be a lot of opportunity for mental health services and product innovation.
