Russia on the Brink of Being Kicked From SWIFT as Kyiv Heroically Holds

The move would be the biggest sanction yet imposed on Russia as it continues to bombard cities and Kyiv.

“SWIFT is just a matter of time, very short time, days,” a central bank governor within the euro zone, who asked not to be named, said according to Reuters, adding:

“Is it sufficient? No. Is it necessary? Absolutely. Sanctions only make sense if there are costs for both sides and this will be costly.”

Such a move may increase bitcoin usage within Russia as the only liquid way to make international payments, but any substitution would likely be a fraction of transactions that would have occurred through SWIFT.

In the more medium to long term Russia may try to set up its own system, but they appear to lack cutting edge skills with any such system likely a very inferior replacement.

Is it enough? Well, the European Union and much of the rest appears to be taking a cascading strategy. Ratcheting up and ratcheting up the pressure in metaphorical punches to get Putin to stop.

Kicking Russia out of SWIFT is in itself a big step, but an even bigger step than the action may be that this option has been taken off the queue.

Focus thereafter will probably turn to gas and oil. Russia sells a lot of it to Europe, and it is through the selling of that gas and oil that Russia has acquired the resources to launch this big scale war in Europe.

Just a few years ago, Russia’s army was in disarray. They have modernized to some extent, but as we’re seeing on the ground, they have some way to go.

Germany and Italy are the biggest importers of Russian gas. Will their people be willing to put on an extra pullover for freedom and democracy while people die in Ukraine?

Spring is here, and both countries are thought to have sufficient reserves until next winter, so the answer may well be yes, especially if we keep seeing civilian high rise apartments being shelled in Ukraine.

That’s where the debate moves to once this SWIFT goes through, and cutting gas will of course hurt Russia, by hundreds of billions.

Even with sanctions so far the country might see a deep recession, -10% perhaps or worse, with it unclear how they plan to recover as the effects will be structural and relations will get worse by the minute this continues.

The Days of Heros

When the day came, the men and women of Ukraine have answered the call of liberty to defend their country and democracy, to fight for emancipation and against slavery.

It’s our duty, a blonde young Ukrainian MP told Newsnight this Friday evening while showing her Kalashnikov that they were given from her family home in what seemed like a high rise building.

The camera then turned blank, just a black square. The sirens had gone off in Kyiv and she was heading to the bomb shelter.

This terror livestreamed to the globe 24/7 from one of Europe’s great cities came just minutes after their president, Valdymyr Zelensky, had stated Saturday early morning was the day when they were to storm Kyiv, and Kyiv must hold. It did.

“The Ukrainian resistance to the Russian advance appears extraordinary,” James Heappey, UK’s armed forces minister, said before adding:

“All of Russia’s day one objectives of Kharkiv, Kherson , Mariupol, Sumy and even Melitopol, which the Russians are claiming to taken but we can’t see anything on that, are still all in Ukrainian hands.

The fighting on the outskirts of Kyiv overnight, we understand to just be Russian spetsnaz special forces and pockets of paratroopers. The reality is the armoured columns coming down from Belarus and the north to encircle Kyiv are still way off, because they have been held off by this incredible Ukrainian resistance.”

The morale of the Ukrainian army clearly appears to be very high. The immortal 13 men and women who in defending their tiny island told a Russian warship to fuck off when asked to surrender, seems to encapsulate the spirit of freedom or glory.

Tales of an ace in the sky, the first since 2001, where one pilot is said to have shot down 5 Russian jets, the Ghost of Kyiv (painted in the featured image) as he is now called, must terrify the poor Russian pilots that act in their country’s name to the disapproval of 50% of Russia.

Some 2,000 people were arrested for protesting in Russia on Thursday, another 700 were arrested on Friday. More than 600,000 Russians have signed a petition demanding an end to the war.

Protests are occurring across the globe, from Tokyo to New York, Tbilisi to Tallinn.

Donations are being organized, with more than $4 million sent to Ukraine in just bitcoin.

The Russian president Vladimir Putin also appears to be on his own, with no one in the world voting against the UN resolution demanding a ceasefire, except Russia itself.

Even China abstained, a China that some wonder maybe was not told there would be an invasion. Perhaps Russians told them too what they told their own public, that they would not invade, and China presumably did not have a reason to not believe it.

That may explain the attendance of Imran Khan, the Pakistani president, to the Kremlin on the day of the invasion. Russia maybe was trying to keep up the deception of China, and the world, to the last day, though they probably did tell India as India did not seem to be too surprised on Thursday.

Yet invading they are, after lying and lying to the entire globe, and now comes Sunday, the day of rest.

You’d expect the people of Ukraine to be given some respite on that day, or the Pope might move to even excommunicate Vladimir Putin, the sanctioned.

To show how bad relations are now, Russia’s president personally is banned from setting foot in the United States, in addition to, with EU and UK, sanctioning all his assets.

Viva la France?

Emmanuel Macron, the French president, was quiet for quite some time after the invasion began. We take it as a sign that he was very, very angry.

Just hours before, he had announced to the world the arrangement of a summit between US president Joe Biden and Putin. He was deceived thus to the very last minute, or maybe even backstabed.

The French have now seized a Russian cargo vessel transporting cars, which was headed for St Petersburg. It is “strongly suspected of being linked to Russian interests targeted by the sanctions”, said Capt Veronique Magnin, of the French Maritime Prefecture.

They have also announced new shipment of arms to Ukraine with Germany too just now dropping objections to German weapons sold to Netherland being barred from being sent to Ukraine.

The United Kingdom has always maintained strong support for Ukraine to the point Boris Johnson shouted “Slava Ukraini” in the British Parliament.

As expected France would follow as it has done, and if France does then Germany has no choice, as is now being indicated by dropping this objection, and if Germany does too, then the rest of Europe has little choice.

On the other hand there’s speculations Russia might not quite be able to keep up their supplies.

They are blockading the Black Sea however, interfering in international commerce, with it unclear whether some French navy or even British navy will make their way to secure civilian ships.

While focus returns on Turkey regarding the Bosphorus. Apparently now they haven’t made a decision on whether to close it or not when previous statements suggested they were not going to close it.

That clearly shows the calculation of actors is changing by the minute the clearer and clearer it becomes that this adventure has nothing to do with Nato, or even Ukraine, but with the raising of force against democracy itself, in an assault thus on the very system of Europe.

Ukraine has now offered Putin what he wants in regards to not joining Nato and to remain neutral in a Finlandization option, but Putin continues bombing civilian apartments in an indication that he aims to claim the right to usurp democracy and that whole golden system of rule of law, free speech, etc., in that formula of the enlightenment. That he wants to unseat it, and not just in Ukraine but in Europe and in the entire world, and replace it with dictatorship. For, there’s no reason for him to continue otherwise if this was just about Nato membership.

As such, momentum may be building especially if Ukraine keeps holding and certainly if victory is within sight with their president saying: “We will win!”

If they do, Europe will rebuild their nation, and Ukraine will certainly become part of the European Union, just like Finland.

And they might win as Zelensky himself seems to be taking the approach of freedom or glory in elevating himself to a god among men by not surrendering but fighting from the beaches, to the rivers, to the cities.

May god be with them. May god defend liberty in our day.