Putin’s Invincibility Pierced After Dramatic Weekend in Russia

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg’s daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

Europe is still digesting a dramatic weekend in Russia. An armed insurrection by a mercenary group exposed a weakness in the nation’s defense forces and pierced Vladimir Putin’s aura of total control unlike any other event in his nearly quarter century in power. Yevgeny Prigozhin was offered a deal that appears to allow him to regroup with his Wagner outfit in Belarus — even after his forces downed several Russian helicopters during their dash toward Moscow. An eerie calm fell on Russia in the aftermath as Putin and his inner circle regrouped. Both the Kremlin leader and Russia will likely come out of the crisis weaker, according to one confidential European intelligence assessment. EU foreign ministers will try to make sense of the aftermath when they meet in Luxembourg today. Read the latest coverage

Kevin Whitelaw

What's Happening

Monetary MeetingsECB officials sparring over when to conclude their historic series of interest-rate increases will get the chance to smooth out differences at their annual retreat in Sintra, Portugal, this week. Another hike in July is all but guaranteed, though policymakers are undecided about how much more they must do to get inflation on the road back to 2%.

Bond Warnings Recession alarms are ringing around Europe’s bond markets, replacing the previous concerns over inflation as investors come to terms with the threat to economic growth of increasingly tight monetary policy. Yield curves from Germany to the UK are now the most inverted in decades as investors pile into long-dated bonds for cover.

Gas Mix Europe’s LNG imports surpassed gas coming to the continent via pipelines for the first time last year, according to new data. European customers paid premium prices, which helped fill gaps left by dwindled Russian supply, but led to volatility and inflation.

AI Tour | Mark Zuckerberg and Open AI’s Sam Altman expressed support for the EU’s oversight of artificial intelligence after meetings with Thierry Breton in San Francisco. The internal market commissioner also said the owner of Facebook and Instagram appears well-prepared to meet Europe’s new strict content moderation rules, but will submit to a stress test of its systems next month.

Around Europe

Second TermKyriakos Mitsotakis trounced the opposition in Greece’s general election, giving the incumbent premier a resounding mandate for the next four years and assuring markets that he’ll be able to implement investor-friendly policies. Mitsotakis’s conservative New Democracy secured 158 members in the 300-seat parliament, allowing him to form a single-party government.

Brewing Fight | Giorgia Meloni reinforced her opposition to having lawmakers take up a revision of the euro area’s bailout fund, stoking a standoff that puts Italy at odds with the EU. The prime minister has repeatedly said that an agreement on new EU fiscal rules should take priority over a change to the European Stability Mechanism treaty.

Crypto Crackdown | Belgian authorities ordered Binance to cease operations in the country, joining a growing roster of European and US regulators to act against the world’s largest crypto exchange. The company was cited for providing trading and wallet custody services from countries that are not members of the European Economic Area, which is prohibited.

Swedish Secret | The Sweden-born finance chief of General Electric says her homeland of 10.5 million people has produced an unusually high number of global corporations. Carolina Dybeck Happe puts that down to a working culture that’s focused on decentralization and empowerment. Read more of our interview

Chart of the Day

High prices and sliding exports, coupled with a strong 2022 harvest, have fueled a buildup of wine supply in the bloc. That’s created a “serious loss of income,” especially for rose and red wine producers in France, Spain and Portugal.

Today's Agenda

All times CET

• EU foreign affairs ministers meet in Luxembourg with news conference scheduled for 3:30 p.m.
• 7.30 p.m. European Central Bank forum opens, including welcoming remarks by ECB President Christine Lagarde, in Sintra, Portugal
• EU agriculture and fisheries ministers meet in Luxembourg
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg meets Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda in Vilnius, attends Exercise Griffin Storm with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius
• Commission Vice President Vera Jourova, Commissioner Thierry Breton meet Snap CEO Evan Spiegel