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China, Europe And America, A New Treaty For A Roaring 20s?

China, Europe And America, A New Treaty For A Roaring 20s?

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After much bickering between America and China, it looks like diplomats are starting to be a bit more in charge, opening an opportunity for potentially a new understanding between the three superpowers.

So far it has been just US and China negotiating, but Merkel recently met the Chinese Prime Minister, telling him that China has to open up.

There are real concerns in Europe and America that businesses do not feel safe operating in China, and not because of the pandemic but because the Chinese government can kick them out at any point and even when it allows them to operate, it is too protectionist.

That’s something this space has seen first had. We honored them with Devcon in Shanghai in 2016, for example, when Chinese companies and state media was quite happy to extent their welcome. Yet just a year later, they shut down everything.

So there needs to be some sort of treaty between Europe, China and America that lays down ground rules for reciprocal trade between the three continents.

The diplomats in short need to meet in Vienna as no one wants a continuation of animosities or worse. There they need to strike a new deal concerning economic relations between the world’s three biggest economies, each of which depends on the others for their prosperity and security.

Or China can go back to the 70s and stick with just Moscovits and see if doing the same thing twice will this time somehow lead to a different result.

A New Deal For A New Age?

We think it is obviously in China’s interest to continue what can be seen as an economic merger between the three superpowers where trade is concerned.

For that however there need to be some basic rules. An important one would be an independent judiciary where business maters are concerned.

Because while how they govern themselves is a matter for Chinese people, whether authoritarian or they can be an absolute kingdom where anyone else is concerned, how they govern foreign businesses and foreign citizens is our business as well as theirs.

Which means there has to be a treaty agreement on that part, and that treaty needs to include a mechanism for an independent judiciary to adjudicate on matters.

Enforcing such judgments by national courts can be seen as easy but that’s only because there’s a long established tradition that understands very well it can be enforced by taking to the street.

At an international level it is more difficult, but that’s usually where it concerns political aspects regarding governance. Where it concerns economic or business matters that are part of a treaty, enforcing them has been quite effective as far as history tells, with numerous consequences for breaches by either party.

So the current crisis can be an opportunity for regeneration if the three powers can reach an understanding on free trade under the rule of law as adjudicated by an independent judiciary guaranteeing basic rights in economic endeavors.

The benefits of reaching some understanding where all three are concerned are self evident, giving both Chinese companies operating in the continent, and European or American companies operating in China, a sense of long term security and certainty regarding the business environment.

Such treaties however usually take decades, which is not quite a timeline that we have in mind, but the details can take decades while the understanding and broad brush rules should be reachable within months.

It may also be that all three prefer to have bilateral agreements instead of effectively a global treaty, but in the digitized world it can be difficult to differentiate where an American company ends and a European one or a Chinese one begins due to supply chains and much else.

Three or Thirty

Presuming others have in mind the same thing we do, which you’d expect as it’s quite logical, then the question would be why not also include Russia, which would also mean an extension to Arabia and Brazil and Japan and others.

If we were to design this then we wouldn’t quite mind if they were included, except obviously the primary focus would be on Europe, China and America as they’re about $14 to $20 trillion economies, while Russia and the like are just about a trillion.

There’s nothing to stop them from adopting the agreement however, with this piece which arose organically while covering market news so suggesting basically the world has changed too much since the current structures were set-up in the 1940s. Therefore the diplomats need to gather again.

Otherwise we’ve all seen what has been happening, with the devil’s game excelling at only one thing: expanding the war arena to eventually total war.

The only way we know to stop that is to have some ground rules on trade which are and are perceived to be fair.

Without such ground rules, then everyone ends up fighting everyone – which is what kind of has been happening – with all sides thinking all other sides are in the wrong, leading to destruction and devastation to the benefit of no one.

Europe, Lead the Diplomatic Waves

Europe knows better than most just what the devil’s game of geopolitics means and therefore it is perhaps Europe that should be taking the lead and the initiative in reaching a diplomatic understanding with the ambition to end all wars and animosities.

Americans may grumble, but Americans are Europeans. The Chinese are probably quite impressed by how Germans have handled the recent crisis. For Russia, Germany is their biggest customer so they’d go an extra mile to please them. Arabia is of course deep in debt to Germany for welcoming so many escaping the war zones. So generally everyone would probably be happy to let them see if they can organize the diplomatic initiative to reach a new understanding.

A most difficult task, but you’d think at this stage everyone is probably a bit tired of being reminded too much of the last century. Something they’re showing clearly as the young have not been on the streets globally, for now months starting at the very beginning of 2019, just for fun.

So by now there should be genuine desire to reach such understanding for all three superpowers, with the only way to avoid another dance perhaps being one treaty instead of numerous bilateral agreements in a complex web of alliances.

The world moreover shouldn’t be divided into spheres of influence, of bigger countries bulling smaller ones, like Russia wants.

Considering the significant immigration and the significant diasporas in Europe and America, what happens in a small country often concerns citizens of the two super powers. So you can’t just say for example China can do whatever it wants in the Philipines.

There has to be a rule based international order to end any and all wars of aggression and also to end the devil’s game of geopolitics that has led to only a worsening of the globe with it predictable what will follow if either the people don’t end it or the current diplomats don’t do so a lot more orderly and peacfully.

Then we can finally enjoy a new golden age as there is no reason why we should be choosing hell on earth instead of heaven in our own green and pleasant globe.

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