Bitcoin Rises, Stocks Jump, as Leaders Act

Many reasons for it, but the primary one is probably because support at $39,000 turned out to be iron support.

Bitcoin tried and tried to fall below it amid market turmoil, but it held and so now it tries the least resistance path.

On 4 hour candles, today’s green is just a blip and barely noticeable, but after so much consolidation, investors may be looking for a breakout.

This may be one of those instances where size doesn’t matter therefore, not more than the direction, with spring hopefully green to give a proper bounce, though $47,000 would have to come down first.

Euro stocks are also green today, up 3.8% in the Stoxx index. That may be due to numerous reasons, including a gigantic $88 billion investment by Intel on Germany, France, Italy and even Ireland as well as Poland for new semiconductor fabs.

Oil has also come crashing, as we expected, down below $100 now with Boris Johnson, the British Prime Minister, visiting UAE today (pictured) and Saudi Arabia later.

There’s just one topic here: flood the market. They’ll probably listen to the British and so oil likely has more down to go, $70s certainly but preferably $50.

That’s while Russia is on the brink of default. There’s a bond payment due, and everyone expects them to not quite make it, not in dollars anyway.

But there’s speculation that potentially things might cool down in Ukraine as negotiations continue, although with Russia now we believe nothing until we see it.

China. The Hang Seng index is up 9%, while Shanghai’s SCHOMP is up 3.5% after falling 5% yesterday.

Their government has pledged to “boost the economy in the first quarter,” to support overseas stock listings, resolve risks around property developers and complete the crackdown on Big Tech “as soon as possible.”

That’s a lot of words that probably translate to turning the printer on, but also China is not a solid rock, it’s a fluid society. They’re seeing what’s happening. Maybe they think Putin fooled them with that whole Putinist ideology of nationalist confrontation and aggression towards liberalism.

There are two interesting facts on this matter. It is claimed China told Russia on February the 4th to not invade before the Olympics are over. Some war planning documents seized by Ukraine however show that the decision to invade was made on January 16th, and the invasion was planned to begin on February 20th.

If China new of this, then there was no reason to ask them to not invade before the Olympics are over because they would have known they would not invade before the Olympics are over.

So did Putin really not tell China? Well, the only evidence available suggests he didn’t. What is absolute truth however is not establishable in this case, but maybe sometime truth doesn’t matter, maybe it’s better to leave the door open for reconciliation with China as no one benefits from confrontation, certainly not of the barbaric sort like Russia engaged.

So the ball is on their court. Do they want to go the path of Russia with this Putinism nonsense knowing full well where it leads, or do they want to make a turn and go back to liberalization reforms?

Their choice, but overall leaders are seemingly trying to get a grip, except Putin who has lost his, and at least in Europe there may be a new sense of confidence while in USA Biden has maybe secured a landslide thanks to Tucker Carlson.

And so, will this be a spring for markets? Hopefully. Bitcoin held and held, stocks maybe have bottomed, the west prevailed, and spring is usually good for green.