Veteran investor and Shark Tank star Kevin O’Leary warns that more regional banks could go under as they face immense losses from their exposure to one sector of the economy.
In a new interview on the Meet Kevin YouTube channel, O’Leary says that the commercial real estate sector will likely put a lot of pressure on equity holders, including regional banks.
O’Leary says that investors in commercial real estate will likely get wiped out in the next two years.
“The majority of risk right now in the infrastructure of both regional and money center banks is commercial real estate... We have 11 sectors in the economy. The 11th, the newest is real estate…
The majority of debt that was done in very liquid times with very low rates starts to come due in Q3 and Q4 of 2024. So the defaults will start then and then the peak of it, the refinancing in 2025, is going to be very high.
That’s when all of a sudden the economics of a lot of commercial real estate don’t make sense, it’ll be upside down.
And the equity holders in those real estate buildings, they will go to zero.”
According to O’Leary, the commercial real estate sector will likely trigger a period of weakness in the economy for the next year and a half. The Shark Tank star goes on to say that commercial real estate could eradicate hundreds of billions of dollars worth of investments and trigger the downfall of more regional banks.
“I think we’re going to have a period of softness for maybe 18 months…
It could be that long, and it probably will be triggered by this colored pig in the python of commercial real estate. It’s got to go through the belly.
It’s a really big $0.5 trillion loss, has to be absorbed. It will wipe out 15% of the regional banks.”
