Last week we experienced another nice rise on Bitcoin and yesterday there was quite a drop. Would this be the start of a retrace and then go higher. We are going to take you through the different timeframes and discuss the possibilities.
On the weekly we reached the extended Fibonacci 3.618 and probably a lot of traders took some profit there. Since we don't have any historical data, this is the only way to determine possible resistance zones next to the psychological zones.
Should we already anticipate things a bit and draw the Fibonacci over the weekly, we'd immediately fall on the zone between 0.5 and 0.618 confluence with the top around 20K.
Daily already has a confirmation from the top and if we take the daily Fibonacci with us, the golden pocket is reasonably close to the 0.382 of the weekly Fib. This is a possible level for a reversal. However, there is a thin bottom support and the main support on the previous top of 2017/2018 is around 20K.
On the four hour graph there is currently a retest going on of the outbreak of the previous high. This is also the golden pocket measured from the last inpulse wave. The ema's are still in good shape and the ema100 still offers support.
The rsi has pretty much tapped the over4sold area and is currently looking up again. The added ema on the rsi has confluence with the center line and can cause resistance here.
Conclusion:
If on today's four hour chart a higher low is set around the white zone then I expect the course to continue its upward movement and we can start looking at the next resistance zones at 41647 and then the next one just below 45K.
If we get 4h candle close below the white zone and if there is a bearish retest I think we will seriously go lower and support around 28K - 30K is what I am looking at. And if it doesn't keep up we will look for the highs of 2017/2018 but I don't think that chance is very big at the moment.
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