That's not just the best title I could come up with, it's a serious question... there are less and less certainties in today's financial world, so we shouldn't just sit back and make the same assumptions we would ten or twenty years ago-- or even last year.
And I am NOT a financial expert of any kind... consider this a public viewing of my personal thoughts: me thinking out loud. Don't take anything I say as financial advice. Do your own research, input the opinions you encounter and make the best decisions you can. I wouldn't even trust paid professional accountants and money managers to be making all the right moves right now.
But we can at least ask one good question:
What is sustainable right now?
To make the conversation less complex, I'm taking a few things off the table right away... things that I believe are the most vulnerable going forward. You may disagree with one or all of them, but this is my thought process. Here they are:
1. CASH
Currencies are leveraged off-the-charts... and all the rates and projections are being manipulated so heavily, it has all become a ticking time bomb. Cash in the bank is the worst investment right now, in my opinion, followed closely by cash under the mattress.
2. DEBT
If cash is out of the question, debt-backed securities are in the same swimming pool. Savings, bonds, GICs, mortgages and other such instruments will suffer when reality catches up with the global economy. Not a good spot for short or mid-term holdings.
3. STOCKS
The last ten months have been a complete mystery if you actually look at the fundamentals of the market. All the ratios are screaming for the bears to come tear us all to pieces, but everything keeps climbing and climbing... it makes no sense. So that level of manipulation can only end badly... and I wouldn't suggest parking your money there to try and prove me wrong-- unless you have a very sophisticated and defensive contingency plan.
So What's Left?
What can we predict right now? And what if things go further downhill around us... where can we expect to ride out a recession or depression in the most deflationary way? What might actually maintain or grow its value while everything else goes to shit?
PRECIOUS METALS
I won't add to the encyclopedic pile of information already floating around out there about gold and silver, but it's one of the safest bets around... it doesn't fluctuate too much, and it tends to act as a predictable hedge to fiat currencies. So when the economy tanks, precious metals become more valuable.
So it's an easy recommendation: definitely add some gold or silver to your portfolio.
BITCOIN
This is where it gets tricky! First, I'll clarify that there are over 6000 different cryptocurrencies... and Bitcoin is only one of them. But it is THE ONE, the top dog, and has acted as a sort of belwether for the greater crypto economy. So I'm not neglecting the rest of them... but all ships rise and fall with the tide, so to speak, and I see Bitcoin as the tide.
Bitcoin was designed to act as a hedge to the fiat economy, much like gold, but it isn't yet clear if that is how things will work. So far, BTC has had moments of autonomy while also following the traditional markets closer than we would like. The COVID crash in March pulled Bitcoin and the crypto markets down with the ship, so we can't say that a fundamental crash will be different.
We're hopeful-- not only people like myself, but the billionaires and institutional players that are jumping on board-- that it will break away and be the store of value it was meant to be. So would I recommend that you make Bitcoin part of your basket... my answer is YES. Is it the safest bet in the world? No... but there is enough intelligent and wealthy faith behind it that I won't lose any sleep.
Conclusion?
Sigh... nothing is normal right now. So telling you what's going to happen and where your money is going to be safe is like shooting at goldfish in a tidal wave. (I think I may have hit a few of them, but we won't really know until everything dries off!)
It very well could be that the only truly predictable commodity right now is the average person's attention. The one guarantee is that people will be sitting on their asses looking for things to watch and listen to, to read and to learn, to keep their minds off the nonsense condition of the social and political universe right now.
So whatever you do, get online and tell people about it.
Write, make videos or podcasts. Create. That will work.
Everything else is up in the air. Cheers: to adventures.
