Hi everyone,
I've been mulching this article for quite some time now, pretty much since I gave my first try to the Multiplier. Under the claim of being fair and with the promise of free money, the Coinpot Multiplier seems to have a love-hate relationship withe the Coinpot community. Is it a trap? Or is it really free money? Let's dig in!
The Multiplier, a friend with benefit?
Claiming your Coinpot faucets is the easiest and most straight forward way to stack sats. There is, however, much more to do with your Coinpot account. Several Daily, Monthly and All-Time bonuses can help you rapidly and consistently grow your Coinpot Token (CT) bankroll. The Coinpot Multiplier is one of the features of your Coinpot account that you can use to unlock several bonuses via Daily and Monthly challenges. If this little “game” doesn’t seem to do much on its own, the Multiplier is an essential tool to grow your CT bankroll at, apparently, no cost. Since CTs can be converted at will into one of the five cryptocurrencies supported by Cointpot, you definitely don’t want to leave money on the table.
As simple as it looks, the Multiplier seems to suffer from a bad reputation among the Coinpot community. As stated on the Multiplier page, nor you or the house has an edge, in the long run, in this apparent gambling game. Therefore, with no expectations of winning or losing the sole purpose of playing the Multiplier is seemingly to complete Daily and Monthly challenges, thus earning extra CTs. The Daily/Monthly “Multiplier roll” and “Multiplier total stacked” can net you 2 x 1,500 CTs per day and an additional 2 x 1,500 CTs at the end of the month. This can mount up to ~70,000 sats at the end of the month. There are also 3 related All-Time challenges that should make you 4,500 CTs at some point in your Coinpot life.
On top of that, every time you roll the same triple digit (000, 111, etc…) you win a free lottery ticket allowing you to compound even more gains by playing the lottery. Your chances will be minimal here but that didn’t cost you a penny, right? Don’t forget to use your free lottery tickets right away as they expire at the end of every day.
Provably fair, or not...
With a 0% edge either way, everybody and their mama should be rolling the Multiplier day and night to accumulate bonuses. What’s the catch then? I realize that several people have had unfortunate experiences with the Multiplier, to a point where they would give up on daily/monthly bonuses, and despite the system being advertised as fair. Although cautious and trying to minimize the potential impact on my bankroll, I went with what Coinpot claims and I have been putting my daily rolls in for several weeks now. I still want and need to prove/disprove the fairness of the Multiplier for myself – innocent until proven guilty. In the meantime, here is my 2 cents, and maybe a few reasons for you to (re)consider the Multiplier.
Again, the premise here is that no one has an edge in the long run when playing the Multiplier. I think that the notion of “long run” may be what is throwing some people of, because the variance associated with a long run can kill your bankroll. The “long run” means that after an infinite number of rolls the number of wins and losses should be the same (if playing with a 50% win/loss rate). In less than the long run, troubles can occur, but we would expect gains or losses not to be too significantly off. If the stats hold tight, we are not looking at accumulating (or losing for that matter) CTs but simply rake the bonuses associated with rolling and stacking CTs. Practically speaking however, no one will ever experience the “long run” and we are only left with “short runs” and all the variance in the world to hit us – that’s the problem to deal with.
I read and watched several articles and videos of people discussing strategies and tips and tricks to “beat” the Multiplier – playing without sustaining CTs losses while still benefiting from the bonuses. Comments often go two radically opposed directions according to one’s personal experience and fortune - “Thanks for the trick, I have been winning for 12 days straight now!” or “This is bullshit! I have lost 10,000 CTs in 20 minutes and I’m bankrupt!”.
The central dogma here is the provability fair concept. In addition to what Coinpot explains, you can find more detailed information here for example. Since I'm not knowledgeable enough, I can't re-explain simply and accurately the math behind it, but the bottom line is: you can't be cheated. So far so good for me and I'm, naively (?), going with the fact that I cannot be cheated when playing the Multiplier. The announced odds are the real odds. Maybe I’m wrong, maybe Coinpot is misleading us, maybe not. Either way, until experimentally proven, which is no simple task, I will believe the Multiplier is fair game.
If you think Coinpot is cheating, then there’s nothing you can do. Just don't play the game. If you believe you are being cheated, then changing the Multiplier parameters won't, or shouldn't, do much to help you. But If you accept the Multiplier is Provably Fair, then outside of a short term variance you are even with the house. Most importantly, and unlike suggested by dozens of articles and videos you can find online, it means that changing any of the parameters you can select when playing the Multiplier won’t make any difference. It. Doesn’t. Matter. At. All. At best (or worse I should say), it will influence the variance you are putting yourself through.
- Rolling on high or low? Still have 50% of winning – 50% of losing. Makes no difference overall.
- Multiply by 2x, 5x, 10x, 20x, 100x or 1000x? You double/quintuple/decuple/vigintuple/centuple/milluple your bet but will win 50%, 20%, 10%, 5%, 1% or 0.1% of the time. Makes no difference overall.
- Changing parameters upon a Win or Loss? See the points above, that doesn’t modify the odds of winning/losing and makes no difference.
Every roll is independent and abide by the same probabilistic laws. I know people have their “pet” preferences and setups when playing on Autoroll (I even have mine to be honest!), but it really doesn’t make any difference when it comes to the odds of winning/losing. In the long run, no one has an edge. But in the short run, things can go bananas for a short period of time and your bankroll could go bankrupt.
Staying alive in the short run is all that matters
The short run, and to some extent not having an bankroll XXL, is what is driving people crazy and makes them lose faith in a provably fair system. In the long run, nobody wins or loses. But in the short run, in your own, unique and personal short run, you can experience unfortunate variations.
Knowing and accepting that variance can crush you in the sort run, you need to do everything you can to reduce the variance and make sure you don’t go bankrupt. By “reducing the variance” I mean that at any point in time when playing the Multiplier I want to be risking the minimum amount of CTs. I want to be losing as little as possible when I’m in a losing streak, and, by correlation, I’ll also be winning as little as possible when I’m in a winning streak (but that is not an issue). Remember, I’m not here to win CTs directly from the Multiplier, I’m only here to rack bonuses.
I simply want to be rolling as much as possible, with the least possible risk, in order to complete my bonuses.
What to do to reduce the variance when you can’t affect the odds of winning/losing then?
- Only use Multiply by 2x – 50% chance of win/loss. You’ll win more often this way and will tend to stay longer around the provably fair average gain/loss, which is 0.
- Only bet 1 CT per roll. Betting more aggressively increases your variance, not your odds of winning. You should increase the size of your bet only if you are trying to complete the Daily CTs Stacked challenge. Getting up to 1,000,000 CTs stacked in one day by betting only 1 CT at a time will prove very challenging time wise.
- Leave to “no change” the Multiplier and Stack menus in the Autoroll settings.
- You can set the “High/Low” setting on win or lose as you please as it doesn’t affect the size of your bet.
In my opinion, there’s no reason to set a “profit limit” to the Autoroll, as long as win and need to roll, keep it rolling. As long as you are monitoring your bankroll when playing the Multiplier, there is not much of a reason to set a “loss limit” either. But I have witness on rare occasion the Multiplier behaving very oddly, and setting loss limit can be useful.
If you want to read more, Wickedthewolf gives a nice overview of his own experience with the Multiplier here.
Ongoing tracking experiment
As much as I want to trust the process, I also want to see for myself if the Multiplier is as fair as claimed, and if it truly is a free money machine. I want to see what the variance looks like during a month or so and if, potentially, rolling ad nauseum is a viable strategy. If the long-term odds of winning/losing any significant amount of CT are truly 0, playing the Multiplier at least for bonus CTs is something I want to aim for every day.
For about a month now I have been tracking all my rolls, gains and losses. I'll write a little something about the results of that experiment shortly. Everything seems good at this point, but there might be some curious behavior in the middle...
Outside of the daily/monthly bonuses, if rolling forever has a no long-term impact on your bankroll, then accumulating free lottery tickets is what could tip the odds of wining CTs in your favor. Although chances are really low to ever win anything at the Lottery, playing for a lot of free tickets everyday should reward at some point.
Thanks for reading and I hope you find this somewhat useful. Feel free to post your comments and own experience with the Multiplier, I'll be happy to discuss.
- OMS
