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On December 14, 2021, the number of circulating BTC has exceeded the total of 18,900,000. Thus, more than 90% of the Bitcoin supply has already been issued. This means that from today to 2140, less than 10% of the total supply of Bitcoin remains to be issued. That's less than 2,100,000 BTC.
That's not much when you consider that “only” 130 million users currently own Bitcoin and that the number of people on Earth is already 7.8 billion. This number is expected to continue to grow in the coming years to approach 10 billion by 2064 according to the latest UN estimates (9.7 billion).
On the other hand, the UNO predicts that the world population will decrease to 8.8 billion inhabitants in 2100.
Taking this figure of 8.8 billion inhabitants in 2100, this implies that there would be at most 0.002386 BTC per inhabitant if everyone had the same amount of BTC. Of course, you know that things don't work that way with Bitcoin.
If everyone has the same initial opportunities with Bitcoin, those who choose to embrace its revolution before others will benefit more than others. It makes sense that equal opportunity does not mean the same amount of BTC for everyone. Everyone has the amount of BTC they deserve by paying the price they deserve.
If the goal is still to own 1 BTC in full, some people have taken a big step forward as you will see. I had fun cross-checking different information on the claimed or estimated BTC possessions of some people. My goal is to give you an overview of the distribution of BTC at the end of 2021.
Overview of BTC distribution at the end of 2021
Remember that these are only estimates, since the Bitcoin network is pseudonymous, the only certain information you can check for yourself is the information related to the network addresses.
Here is a chart illustrating this Bitcoin distribution:
If the supply of Bitcoin is hard-capped at 21 million units, many coins are already lost forever. Their owners have probably lost access to the associated private keys. It is estimated that there are 3,790,000 of these coins lost forever!
This only makes the remaining BTC units even rarer, as Satoshi Nakamoto mentioned at the beginning of the Bitcoin network:
“Lost coins only make everyone else’s coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.”
Thus, instead of the 21 million BTC initially planned by Satoshi Nakamoto, mankind will have to make do with a maximum circulating supply of around 17,210,000 BTC (at best).
In addition to these coins, which will probably be lost forever because they can no longer be used in transactions on the network, we must take into account the war chest that Satoshi Nakamoto was able to accumulate at the beginning of the Bitcoin network for his mining work to secure the network.
The figures estimate Satoshi Nakamoto's possession at 1,041,715 BTC. Since we haven't heard from Satoshi Nakamoto since December 2010, this suggests that those 1,041,715 BTC will never be usable again. This would again make the other coins actually in circulation even more valuable.
Then we have a total of 2,330,018 BTC stored at the moment on all the exchange platforms of the market from COINBASE to Binance, through Kraken or KUCOIN and FTX.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is next, with 654,885 BTC held for its customers. This Bitcoin is therefore not directly owned by Grayscale but was purchased on behalf of its clients. Bulgaria then supposedly holds 213,519 BTC that it seized from criminals during a police investigation that ended in May 2017. At the current price of Bitcoin, this represents $10.8B, more than the gold reserves of Bulgaria's central bank.
However, it is unclear how the country plans to use its Bitcoin in the future.
The company Block.one, which later created the cryptocurrency project EOS, also has a huge war chest in BTC with 164,000 coins in its possession. Behind them are private individuals with the Winklevoss twins owning something like 150,000 BTC according to various estimates. That would make the Winklevoss twins the multi-billionaires of the Bitcoin world.
As you can see, those who believed in Bitcoin before anyone else and bet a lot of fiat money on its future success are being amply rewarded for their boldness today.
MtGox comes in behind with 141,686 BTC that will eventually be returned to the customers who were cheated during the hack of the exchange platform as I explained to you a few weeks ago. Having embraced the Bitcoin revolution in August 2020, MicroStrategy is already on that list with 122,477 BTC. But what Michael J. Saylor's company owns in Bitcoin will only increase in the future, as its strategy is clear: buy BTC in DCA mode by taking advantage of every dip.
Behind that, holdings are below 100K BTC.
With a current circulating supply of 18,911,575 BTC when I made this chart, this represented 10,172,613 BTC held mainly in cold storage whether by individuals or exchange platforms.
More and more long-term HODLers and illiquid BTC
Going further, it is interesting to look at the statistics on the liquidity of BTC held which are proposed by Chainalysis:
As you can see, 15,437,568 BTC are considered illiquid. The current supply of highly liquid Bitcoin, which is moved very frequently, is about 1.5 million BTC. The liquid supply is 1.9 million BTC.
Finally, we can see that the number of addresses holding Bitcoin for at least a year is constantly increasing and is now approaching 10 million:
Final Thoughts
These numbers are there to confirm at least two things in my opinion. The first is that patience is the key with Bitcoin. Those who trusted Bitcoin before others and were patient will be rewarded the most in the future. The second is that BTC's liquidity numbers support the idea that the trend is more optimistic for what lies ahead for Bitcoin in the coming weeks and months.
It will be interesting to follow the evolution of these Bitcoin distribution numbers but also BTC held’s liquidity in the months to come.
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