First of all congratulations hodlers. Another benchmark, the very important $30000, has been breached! There is every reason to be excited yet again, but rest assured, there are also several signs and patterns to consider for this 1st month of 2021.
Today Bitcoin made yet another high, almost hitting $35k, but since we see a correction. Everyone must be wondering how low it can go this time. Well the 4H MA50 and MA200, as well as the LMACD and RSI (on the 4H time-frame), may give a few interesting pointers.
** The MA50/ MA200 on 4H **
As you see on the chart, BTC has been supported by the MA50 (blue trend-line) on the 4H time-frame since December 12. During that period, the price made contact with that line only once (December 23). Prior to the 4H MA50, BTC had the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as Support from November 26 to December 12 (made contact twice). As seen on the chart, I've distinguished the 4H MA50 and MA200 holding phases, and I will explain right away why.
** The RSI and LMACD **
The start and end on the two MA50 holding phases, are exactly when the RSI hits its Resistance Zone (red flags). On top of that, the LMACD sequences of those two phases are identical (see (a), (b), (c)). On the other hand the MA200 holding phase, is below the RSI Resistance Zone , with no registered contact, while also being below the RSI Support Zone (MA50 Support Zone ), noted in green.
** Conclusion **
But what does the above tell us? Assuming the post MA50 holding sequence (November/ December) is replicated, then BTCUSD may have made a top or make one near the -0.236 Fib extension and if the 4H MA50 breaks, find Support on the 4H MA200 (around the 0.5 Fib retracement level), for a roughly 3 week consolidation.
Do you think these sequence can provide a framework to trade for the next month? Are you waiting for a 0.5 Fibonacci correction or are you buying on a daily basis? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
By: alanmasters 16:06 Jan 03, 2021 Exchange Bitstamp
Bitcoin | The Last Bullish Monthly Candle? Peak At $46k or $73k?
Thanks a lot for your support.
We are likely to be witnessing the last monthly bullish candle before Bitcoin starts to retrace... How far up will it go?
Looking at our Fibs. on this chart, based on the monthly timeframe , we have the following resistance levels coming up next:
1) $36200 (very close)
2) $40700
3) $46400 (Golden ratio, Potential peak/top)
4) $62970
5) $73200 (Secondary potential peak/top)
Predicting how far up it ends up going is really hard, only the market makers really know but we can make an educated guess...
First thing, we are likely to wick out.
- Looking at past history, the final jump is always very strong.
- Looking at recent action, it can go way longer, further, higher, and be stronger than anyone knows...
For now, my main target on this chart is set at $46,000... We can extract more numbers after this level is hit if it is hit.
But currently, we surely have room for additional growth.
The TD Sequential started a new count but after the positive 9, we tend to get a long wick on a new #1 candle and then a retrace... This is shown in the monthly analysis I shared multiple times before.
Here is the previous analysis based on the monthly timeframe and the TD Sequential... Hit PLAY and read it to get the bigger picture:
Bitcoin Monthly $300k | TD Sequential (8+9 = 1 = Higher High)
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Daily Crypto Calendar, Jan 03th
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