It is a Sunday update so I will keep it short. First it was the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) that held, providing a strong Support (twice). Yesterday the strong bullish confirmation was delivered after Bitcoin broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again.
During the current bullish leg since the September Low, there is a specific pattern showing that every time a set of conditions are fulfilled while the price breaks above the 4H MA50, BTC rises +10%.
So what are those conditions? On October 08, Bitcoin broke above the 4H MA50, while the RSI broke above its Lower Highs trend-line and the LMACD posted the biggest Bullish Gap in 15 days (roughly). Then what followed was a +10% rise. The same conditions were fulfilled on November 29. The price broke above the 4H MA50, the RSI broke above its Lower Highs trend-line and the LMACD posted the biggest Bullish Gap in 15 days. This posted a +10% rise.
Right now all those conditions are fulfilled so it remains to be seen if the pattern holds and BTCUSD tops at +10% from the break-out. This puts the High roughly around $20550. Of course this fractal analysis should not be used alone entirely, it may be beneficial to combine it with patterns from wider time-frames (e.g. 1D) in order to get a more thorough idea of where the price can go.
Do you think this break-out can deliver a +10% rise? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
By: HamadaMark 13:13 Dec 13, 2020 Exchange Binance
#BTC and a nice Midday move to $193xx !!
this movement made many people looking for a breakout for $19900 for new high levels!! and fomo start again so is that the best time to buy BTC?
I agree with you the main trend is Bullish and Monthly close looks very nice!! and there is no clear indication of the end of this trend!!
actually, you cannot know when a trend ends and when another begins, only after a strong movement that most of the traders miss it you recognize the new trend!!
therefore, in a bearish trend , the majority are looking for reversal patterns that support the upside and the opposite in the uptrend. This is how most traders work. A rational person does not want to open a buy position when everyone starts selling.2017 was a clear lesson for most.
Based on the main update we posted and our long position from $17850 we mentioned $21500 as ATH for BTC after breakout $19900 once again!!
In the last short-term update we shared with you, we said we looking for a pullback from $18750 to $18250/18050 again!! and we set failure limits for this prediction by BTC closing above $19150 Daily, until now there no daily close above this level, but BTC moves around $19350 !! So what the next?!
$19450 is (Minor resistance) and 199xx (main resistance) and there no breakout for them yet so the chance for a pullback to $18550/18050 still active and not over yet and we expect it will happen before going to $21500 !! Also, CME closed was at $18050 so opening with this big gap, not supported
So we don`t suggest taking any long position from current levels and please don`t fomo.
PRZ below $17150
$16350/15950 Scalping trades
$14520 Short-term trade
$11500 Mid-term trade
$9350 long -term trade
Ps:
We don't short btc or using leverage or trading BLV tokens!! our signals for spot trading only.
Also, The TA updates is an explanation for market movement(not mean buy or sell) We will tell you to buy or not through a clear signal with clear targets and stop-loss risk management, etc, not anything else.
In the end, the information we mentioned here is a personal effort that is subject to success or failure and we welcome constructive criticism.
Good luck to all.
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