We saw signals of on-chain coin maturation, as coins which moved earlier in this bull market into cold storage, now are on their way to becoming classified as long-term holder (LTH) coins.
Once a coin ages (HODLed) beyond 5/6 months, it is likely to remain sleeping and it’s classified as Long term holder (LTH) once lifespan exceeds 155 days.
Some price context (BTC market has moved exceptionally fast):
- 6 months ago price was $10.8k (below $20k ATH).
- 3 months ago price was $26.6k (before the first major pullback).
- 1 month ago price was $47.7k (Bottom of second major pullback)
The chart below shows that the volume of coins with lifespan between 1 month and 6 month have increased by over 9.51% of the supply.
Illiquid Supply Chain
The above chart shows the 30-day change in supply moving from a Liquid state (it means that are ready to be traded) into Illiquid state (coins in cold wallets or idle).
- Green bars are Liquid coins moving to HODLed state (accumulation).
- Red bars are HODLed coins moving to Liquid state (distribution).
The chart looks at the monthly change, so we need to compare the bar chart, showing the rate of change, to the price range in the preceding 30-days. This is needed to see which are the periods where HODLer strength is increasing.
A couple observations can be made regarding the supply vs demand balance over the past 6 months:
- Accumulation at rates exceeding +130k BTC/month have been consistently maintained throughout this bull market.
- Holders were nervous on the rally from $12k to $18k and they sold some coins (box #4).
- Significant Volume of coins matured/HODLed (+207k BTC/m) as price broke above last cycles ATH as shown by large green bars in Box #3 (related to prices in Box #4).
- Maturing and HODLing of coins continues today with a rate of change hitting +195k BTC/m this week.
Older and Stronger
As coins mature and get older, it indicates they are more likely to be held by stronger hands who are not shaken out by price volatility. The indicator CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) is a measure of economic activity which gives more weight to coins which haven't been spent for a long time. Currently, it indicates that over the last three months, old hands have slowed their spending significantly.
Source: Glassnode
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