160
DISCLAIMER: This post was written as events were unfolding and the author does not claim to have any first hand sources. I try not to consciously take sides in the political conflict unfolding in Kazakhstan right now.
This is very much hot commentary, but what we are witnessing now - political instability in Kazakhstan and a BTC crash should be reflected upon and acted upon as soon as possible by all crypto holders. First, let me explain the not-so complicated situation. For whatever reason (fuel price hike in winter globalist manipulation, dissatisfaction with government - pick your poison) the people of Kazakhstan have rose up to set fire to government buildings and loot ATMs, the usual drab-standard of uprisings. The reaction of the heavy-handed powers that are was predictable and unsurprisingly Kazakhstan has been almost entirely cut off from the internet. This has some obvious consequences, but the most relevant to crypto is cutting off many BTC miners from the network. Kazakhstan is a crypto powerhouse, with a great many Chinese crypto projects moving there with their mining hardware due to the PRC's bipolar stance on crypto and Kazakhstan's relatively cheap energy and real estate. I could probably find out Kazakhstan's estimated hashrate, but that is neither here nor there - what matters is that cutting off Kazakhstan from the world wide web has had and continues to have immediate implications for all crypto mined there.
So, action points. We might expect the situation to clear out sooner or later. Whatever government the country will have in the future, it is highly unlikely that an internet blackout will be permanent - mining will resume and BTC will rebound. This is not a change in fundamentals as much as it is a temporary development. Those of us who expect power shortages in Kazakhstan or anticipate looting of mining equipment might want to refrain from buying the dip, those who think this is the worst the situation can get crypto-wise might want to buy. I am personally on the buy side. That is all, this seems to be a straight forward flash sale.
On a more ponderous note, the reaction of BTC, a global, internet currency to localised political trouble shakes many of us out from a deterritorialised slumber in which crypto is suspended in some indiscriminate 'cloud'. Remember, mining takes place in physical space. The internet is made out of electrons, which still need cables. Let us keep this in mind each and every time BTC is touted as some safe haven from the often politically generated instabilities of 'conventional' assets. Just because crypto has been mentally compartmentalised by many as belonging to some different reality does not mean it is exempt from 'real-world' (see what I did there?) troubles. Kazakhstan's instability causing a crypto crash is also proof to the extent to which the BTC network has conglomerated, with a number of large players holding sway over the majority of the hashrate. This has been suggested as a doom and gloom scenario for BTC, but for now I see little cause for despair: the BTC drop in price has so far been marked, but not catastrophic and the network remains workable.
TL;DR: I would personally buy BTC now. This is a temporary setback. This does not reveal anything sinister about the BTC network. We should still keep an eye on developments and remember that BTC is not magic internet money. Crisis = danger+ opportunity.
