How much will a Bitcoin be worth in 5 years? How much will Ether be worth? How about X?
Will the world have adopted cryptocurrency on a larger scale yet?
When will my rotten cake friends admit that I'm probably right and they should buy some Bitcoin?
Are US officials going to fuck it up?
What about those other dirty stinking politicians?
You have likely pondered these questions as well.
Luckily for us, there are such good people in the world like the folks at Coindesk.com that have provided us with conveniently formatted free data! With these data and a little bit of knowledge, we may formulate predictions that may help those afraid of the future cope with it and those overexcited relax.
This is how you get the data:
Now, I haven't taken the time to learn R, nor did I even take a formal mathematical statistics class at my time in the university, but boy, do I know my way around the most basic functions of Excel!
You can get a spreadsheet for any of the cryptocurrencies listed, but you may not get the complete history of the token. That's okay; beggars can't be choosers.
Anyway, load it up into Excel and you can do something like this with it:
Man, Excel really makes this brainless now ??
Anyway, now we can answer our burning question: What will be the price of Bitcoin 5 years from now?
And the answer is:
We still don't know, you idiot! We can't predict tomorrow's weather either!
But I'll explain the numbers I got regardless.
Procedure:
- 7-year, 3-year, and 1-year graphs containing opening price, closing price, high and low data were fit with linear and exponential equations
- The parameter with the highest R^2 value was chosen to represent the dataset
- A 5-year-appreciated BTC value was extrapolated from each of the three datasets
Results:
- Sep. 2013 - Sep. 2020 data:
- Extrapolating a linear trend line predicts $17,259 USD
- Extrapolating an exponential fit predicts $308,100 USD
- Sep. 2015 - Sep. 2020 data:
- Extrapolating a linear trend line predicts $11,313 USD
- Extrapolating an exponential fit predicts $64,202 USD
- Mar. 2019 - Sep. 2020 data (not shown):
- Extrapolating a linear trend line predicts $16,685 USD
- Extrapolating an exponential fit predicts $23,563 USD
- Sep. 2019 - Sep. 2020 data:
- Extrapolating a linear trend line predicts $23,200 USD
- Extrapolating an exponential fit predicts $35,994 USD
It's pretty clear here which future we'd like most.
Discussion:
First of all, we notice that the equations generated make sense given the data we fed into them. Yeah, of course. If we use the oldest data set and stick an exponential curve over it, we see the most growth. This is consistent with history.
Second of all, we notice that using data from one year ago most accurately produces the price of 1 BTC today. That also makes sense. Even though 250 ?L fits in the 1 mL pipette, you'll get a more accurate volume if you use the 500 ?L pipette.
Next, we find that both linear and exponential trends of 24-hr high values best fit the data in the one-year graph, while both linear and exponential trends of 24-hr low values best fit the data in the three other graphs.
Finally, we notice that THE NUMBERS DON'T AGREE, but at least they all go in the same direction.
Hahaha, that's science. It's just a crappy trendline analysis, guys.
Let me know if I missed something.
Going through the process of this, one sees the basic idea of using math to predict the price of 1 BTC, or using math to predict anything, for that matter.
It's not necessarily right just because someone wrote a paper about it.
But if that discouraged us, we'd still think the stars were literal deities ??
