Juan Villaverde is an econometrician and mathematician devoted to the analysis of cryptocurrencies since 2012. He leads the Weiss Ratings team of analysts and computer programmers who created Weiss cryptocurrency ratings.
Dr. Bruce Ng is an educator in the field of Distributed LEDGER Technology (DLT) and has been a lead crypto-tech analyst for Weiss Cryptocurrency Ratings since shortly after their launch.
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has busted through the USD 9,000 barrier and is now holding firmly above the USD 8,500 level.
The timing fits neatly with what our cycle model tells us for this crypto bull market. And it’s still got far to go before the cycle ends.
The big remaining question is: HOW far?
Cycles don’t give you the most accurate answers to that question – they’re much better at telling you WHEN a market is ripe for the next move. So today we present a totally different kind of analysis. We start by asking this simple question:
Are Bitcoin buyers in the red or black?
An impossible question to answer? Quite to the contrary, it’s actually pretty easy. Consider this hypothetical scenario…
- Current Bitcoin market price — USD 10,000 per BTC.
- Total supply of Bitcoin — just two coins. Let’s call them “BTC #1” and “BTC #2.” (That’s it. In this scenario, there are no other Bitcoins in existence.)
- BTC #1 just changed hands seconds ago for USD 10,000.
- BTC #2 last changed hands months ago for USD 5,000.
So, that means…
- Their total value is USD 20,000. (That’s the total Market Cap.)
- Their owners paid USD 15,000 for them. (That’s called Realized Market Cap.)
- The total net gain: USD 5,000.
And it’s this gain or loss that helps tell us how big the next big move in Bitcoin is likely to be.
