TK adds an "O" in 2021,
"O" For Observations. (plus a new post look..)
As we head into 2021, on a road well travelled, expect BTC to really rev up as the most fungible, portable hard store of value, while #Polkadot picks up the slack in the #Ethereum delivery model, and #Cardano popularity continues to rise with a stream of deliverables that make a difference.
Does #Chainlink and #Cosmos help out with expansion of the latter part of the market's growth? Likely imo, but not as fast as many in the ERC0 camp would like. Does IOTA finally make the big breakthrough in the machine economy in 2021 when they finally deliver on teir Smart Contract promise? we will see. Lots to "uncover" in 2021!
What I am sure about is crypt will head to 2 Trillion in Market Cap volume collectively by end of 2021, as adoption of crypto as a payment mechanism for retail and services really starts to accelerate as everyone gets back to work, post Jan 20th, 2021 shenanigans.
My own 'intel', sourced from reliable 'fintech' sources, re: the Centralized Digital Currency roll-outs by Central Banks, connected to existing Commercial banks, big and small, is largely hinged on successfully redeploying customized #Ripple #XRP type distributed private ledgers leveraging PoS like settlement mechanisms to handle what they believe will be the shift from #SWIFT and #IBAN over time. And let's not forget the US credit union work by the #SWIRL gang and the impact that might have on extending fiat's hold on settlement for goods and services.
As we move through the future TKO issues, exclusively released first on Publish0x, I hope you enjoy the "under the hood" analysis and fin any tips helpful in preserving and growiing your crypto hard stores of value, whatever they may be.
This first issues is focused on the venerable stalwart in crypto, Bitcoin #BTC, so lets get started.
BTC's New Bottom US $35K: Towards the Moon in 2021 to US 80K?
My best guess Moonshot for EOY "End of Year" 2021 is more than 2X, or around US$80K, where the market drivers "under the hood" must align perfectly both in the positive and negative sense: let's take a quick look at those drivers in play right now, in the big three swim lanes:
The BTC "MoonShot" in 2021 Drivers:
Political
US Government Transitions w/ Least amount of strife and removes economic handcuffs, Debt Jubilee declared, Crypto & BTC is blessed, TRade deal volumes blossom in North America and between same and the UK, even EU comes along for the ride.
Economic
Retail and Services fully embrace ERC20 as settlement Mechanism which drives ETH and Polkadot Values, dragging Cardano with them, as Chainlink and Cosmos become great "inter-settlement" enablers, Balancers take-off to supplant Mutual Funds, More Fita Whale money is converted as fiat starts to loose its shine due to poor International settlement times with expensive per transaction fees.
Social
Android and IOS Mobile users really accelerate their in store use of crypto thanks to retailers and service company adoption, where tps is addressed with DASH and Zcash "Inter-ledger" settlement Front Ends to ERC20 settlement as a service
BTC MoonShot US $80K 2021 Risks: 'Flipside" Stall at US $40K?
Political
US Government Transitions with lots of strife and keeps economic handcuffs, No Debt Jubilee, Crypto & BTC is mired in US Federal regulatory confusion, Trade deal volumes fail to materialize in North America and between same and the UK, EU sits on the sidelines in confusion and chaos.
Economic
Retail and Services only partially embrace ERC20 as settlement Mechanism, because the recovery/stimulus cash fails to materialize quickly in the US which suppresses ETH and Polkadot Values, stunting Cardano innovation adoption while, Chainlink and Cosmos do not see the "inter-settlement" volume, Balancers get a bit of traction while Mutual Fund fiat values collapse, Less fiat Whale money is converted to BTC as the US Government continues to pump more fiat into the market to prop up pension plans mired in bad fiat investments, which also start to lose value as the FAANG stocks get investigated for anit-trust violations.
Social
Android and IOS Mobile users only marginally accelerate their in store use of crypto using the existing champs in the space in non-US markets (#DASH and #Zcash) as retailers and service company struggle to even re-open their businesses.
Somewhere in the Middle is the Truth?: BTC US $60K by EOY 2021
Not to be a fence sitter, I don't think the middle BTC scenario of US$ 60K by EOY 2021 will happen, given what is going right now in Washington, DC, is a "zero sum" game. It will be one or the other, either a 2023 MoonShot direct hit to US$ 80K "on the way there" by EOY 2021 OR, its a complete flare out at US$40K by EoY 2021.
In Either case though, 2022 will see BTC either continue on the Moonshot path or reboot and start heading that way, as "The Genie is out of the Bottle" with BTC and it can't be put back by any government on its way to US $2 Trillion in one or two years.
The Wildcard: Debt Jubilee
IF the Jubilee event of debt forgiveness materializes as some sources I have are suggesting, manifested in the repossession of US $100 Trillion back from Banks, the same Banks who have gouged interest from US government debt they alone issue and, who have leveraged the same ill-gotten win-fall to be expanded into more commercial and consumer debt while over-valuing commercial and consumer real estate to fuel the consumption of that new formed debt issue(with interest) with minimal reserves in play, well it's anyone's guess how fast the BTC price will rise if that happens.
Maybe Keiser is right talking about US $400K for BTC in the near future . We will see, if the Moonshot path is taken, which is a more likely path, if the right US governmental foundation is in place (peaceful, legal (every legal vote counts) transition of government) for the Keiser prediction found here. (Originally from CoinTelegraph Interview, see link below)
Next TKO: Issue #002 Ethereum, Polkadot, and the ERC20 Flippening Prognosis
Best Wishes in 2021, stay safe out there and invest wisely!
TK
