The CEO of crypto investment firm Pantera Capital says that brutal Bitcoin bear markets where BTC plummets over 80% are now a thing of the past.
In a new edition of the Blockchain Letter, Dan Morehead says that Bitcoin has entered the post-halving era and no longer follows the extreme volatility of previous market cycles.
“I believe we are done with the four-year halving cycle – and on to the next price era.
We’ve updated charts we’ve used since 2014 – showing the major bull and bear markets. My sense is that we finished the halving cycle in April. We had a period of temporary insanity – where Chinese mining bans were thought to be negative and a few people had blockchain ESG upside down – and now we’re in a new bull market.
I long advocated that as the market becomes broader, more valuable, and more institutional the amplitude of prices swings will moderate.”
According to Morehead, the new price era will usher in bear markets that are milder than the 2014 and 2018 corrective phases.
“While we’ve had two down 83% bear markets already, I believe those are a thing of our primordial past. Future bear markets will be shallower. The previous two have been -61% and -54%.”
However, Morehead emphasizes that shallower bear markets come with one catch.
“Unfortunately, there’s no free lunch. The flipside is we probably won’t see any more of the 100x-in-a-year rallies either. (There’s an amazing coincidence of the numbers -82/3/4% on here). If it ever hits -83% again, I’m going ALL IN.”
