Crypto analyst and economist Alex Kruger says Bitcoin will “moon” if Democrats win the upcoming presidential and congressional elections.
Kruger also says a Democratic victory will be bullish for gold, silver, and base metals, but bearish for the US dollar and crude oil.
If Kruger’s scenario plays out, it would be against the statistical norm. Presidential elections tend to not be a big factor in US dollar strength, though in general, the dollar tends to perform better after Democratic presidential victories, according to research conducted by Richard Falkenhall, a senior FX strategist at SEB Group.
For his part, Kruger also thinks a Democratic “clean sweep” would be a positive development for “risk assets,” a designation he gives to crypto.
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– Real yields get more negative
– Risk assets continue higher
– Yield curve steepens
– Banking benefits from YC, suffers increased regulation
– Clean tech continues higher
– Big tech underperforms as it faces breakup risks
– Small caps overperform, Nasdaq underperforms
— Kruger (@krugermacro) October 3, 2020
Though he believes the outcome of the presidential election will have a big impact on their success, Kruger thinks the passage of a second coronavirus financial stimulus package would be an even more important factor, referring to it as a “buy the news” event for risk assets like crypto.
The crypto analyst thinks if President Donald Trump is reelected, that could be more bullish in the short term for Bitcoin, but if Democratic nominee Joe Biden wins, that’s likely to be a lot better for BTC in the mid to long term.
