The year started quickly, however the heat surrounding BTC dissipated even more quickly. It feels eerily quiet and peaceful at the moment. It could be a sign of nice consolidation and I hope it is not the calm before a great storm.
Bitcoin has been moving sideways around USD 35 000 and no visible new driver exists at the moment. It is encouraging that these price levels are holding at the moment and could become a new normal situation and a foundation for further growth.
My long-term anticipation remains well into six digits and I remain faithful to the HODL and accumulate tactics. Only 3 months ago if someone told me I may consider buying BTC over USD 30 000, I'd have said they are crazy. However, times quickly change. I was lucky (for the moment) and actually did my last sizeable accumulation at 32 500 and this holding up well for now. I am not a fan of day trading and TA analysis and all attempts to add to my crypto portfolio using such techniques have largely unsuccessful - neutral at best.
At the moment we lack clear new drivers for price development. There is sum FUD such as:
- 1. Calling for further regulation and renewing claims that BTC is used primarily for money laundering and funding illegal activities and terrorism. This including but not limited to ECB's Lagarde and circulated news that US Capitol raids could have been funded using BTC.
- 2. Perhaps the uncertainty surrounding incoming US President Joe Biden and how this could reflect on crypto as a whole. His presidency could indirectly affect crypto as the policy of deficits and printing remains around for some further portion of time.
- 3. Still lingering uncertainty around TETHER, which has been explored by new media and analysts
- 4. There is no further development in BTC mining. While the network remains strong at 149.85 EH/s and difficulty is at ATH at 20.61 TH and projected to grow further 4% in the next reset period, there is little development in the overall level, which could support my belief that price follows the hash-rate. I.e there is a fragile balance here and miners are making decent profits at the moment. Even my old Innosilicon T2T 30TH is still barely making money over my own electricity cost at the moment. I suspect I will keep it running for another month if there is no further price development. At the moment I am happy I am back into hobby mining even if it is for a short period of time.
- 5. I read that people expect new 1.9 trillion stimulus program to be a positive driver as well - I am a little bit skeptical that this may drive price in the short-term in the shape of new retail investors joining the ranks. Most retail investors are scared at these price levels, where even ETH is touching its previous ATH.
Overall, I have a positive outlook as the biggest portion of my crypto is in BTC. I am looking for the next driver for price development and I expect it to be a positive one. If BTC's correction goes deeper, I am be more active in accumulation and I would certainly hope we don't go down 80% from the most recent ATH again. I will continue to slowly accumulate and HODL as patience throughout the last several years has paid off and seems most justified!
