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Traders have been surprised by this unusual trend, and data confirms that there is a complete lack of conviction. Despite the fact that the premium on BTC futures contracts is currently in a bullish zone, that validates buying them indiscriminately. To effectively measure whether professionals have been long throughout this rally, investors should keep an eye on the long / short ratio of professional traders on major cryptocurrency exchanges.

At Huobi we can see that professional traders entered a net short position when Bitcoin surpassed $ 16,000 on November 16. On November 19, some bearish bets appeared as BTC failed to break above the $ 18,000 resistance. Once again they were quick to close their losses and are currently flat. Therefore, we can say that professional traders have tried to guess the local high without much conviction. Interestingly, data from BINANCE shows professional traders applying a different strategy. Despite this, you can still see the lack of conviction.

Binance professional traders held a 10% net long position while Bitcoin climbed above $ 16,000, but then rushed to buy after the price soared above $ 17,500.

While they were still holding a bullish position, they reduced it significantly as BTC struggled to break above $ 18,000 on November 18.

It's worth noting that exchanges collect data from professional traders in different ways, as there are several ways to measure their clients' net exposure. Therefore, any comparison between different providers should be made based on percentage changes rather than absolute numbers.

Ultimately, data indicates that there is some indecision or at least a lack of conviction among professional traders. Data shows that Bitcoin has not experienced a drop greater than 5% since September 4 and in the last 77 days the price of the digital asset has risen 84%. The last time similar price action was observed was on November 25, 2019.