In a YouTube video titled “A Great Depression Worse Than 2008 – Survive & Thrive During The New Economic Reset,” Arthur Hayes laid out his grim vision of the future of the global economy.
On October 9, industry researcher “arndxt” pulled out the best bits, highlighting “The next 5 years will be radical disorder,” according to Hayes.
“The next 5 years will be radical disorder”
Breaking down 163mins with @CryptoHayes
Here are 11 macro-crypto predictions ?? ?? pic.twitter.com/BSSjzA6p43
— arndxt (@arndxt_xo) October 9, 2023
A Macroeconomic Apocalypse
believes that a major financial crisis worse than the Great Depression and that of 2008 is looming near the end of the decade.
The Great Depression was a severe economic crisis that began in the United States in 1929 and lasted through most of the 1930s. Causes included bank failures, the stock market crash, high unemployment, and collapsed international trade.
Hayes reckons this could happen again due to the global adoption of Keynesian economics. This advocates for active fiscal policy by the government but has led to massive amounts of debt and a lack of innovation in alternative energy sources.
Hayes also explained the challenges the US is facing, including rising healthcare costs and defense budgets. There is difficulty in reforming these areas without losing support from the baby boomer generation.
Moreover, high levels of debt and the potential for defaults will result in currency depreciation. US national debt is at a record $33.5 trillion, and billions of dollars are being added every day.
Hayes also discussed the relationship between money printing, inflation, and resource nationalism and how these factors could contribute to rising prices.
All of the above have already been happening in the United States in recent years, accelerated by the pandemic, lockdowns, stimulus measures, and rampant money printing.
Banks are looking increasingly shaky, with deposits flowing out and lending standards tightening to recession levels.
There are a lot of comparisons to current conditions and previous recessionary periods.
Interestingly, banks are now tightening lending standard significantly.
According to Apollo, lending standards are now near 2008 levels.
However, the Fed and many large banks say we are on… pic.twitter.com/JqOtxY1lPo
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 9, 2023
Crypto Markets Dump
As if on queue, crypto market volatility has returned, sending everything into the red again. Total capitalization has dumped 1.6% on the day, which equates to around $24 billion leaving the market.
Bitcoin has failed to break $28,000, printing another lower high, and has fallen back to $27,597 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, Ethereum has lost even more due to a Foundation selloff, tanking the asset by 3.3% to $1,578.
To add to the pain, the specter of another war looms in the Middle East, in addition to the drawn-out conflict in Ukraine.
