CNBC has switched bullish on Bitcoin again. If history can be used as a guide, it might mean that the local top is already in.
Throughout 2018, it became apparent to many analysts that counter-trading CNBC’s cryptocurrency calls was a viable strategy. The media outlet has now, once again, turned bullish on Bitcoin — and it may be a sign that a correction is in the cards.
Counter-Trading CNBC
Trader Jacob Canfield pointed out the strategy in April 2018 which generated significant buzz in the cryptocurrency world. It was simple — counter-trade all of CNBC’s calls.
He claimed then that “almost every single bullish tweet we’ve seen has been at the top of nearly every single rally.” Throughout the bear market of 2018, CNBC became notorious for making some of the worst calls in the market. Since then, CNBC calls have become something of a meme and inside joke among cryptocurrency traders on what not to do.
??My @CNBCFastMoney $BTC indicator is saying go long here for #Bitcoin.
??Average return on bearish tweets = 30%+ Profit.
??If the indicator holds up, we should see #BTC price rally to $8500+.
??Share away, but make sure you follow and tag me.
??LINK:https://t.co/djElEzroZn pic.twitter.com/mW5EGUG7Rf
— Jacob Canfield (@JacobCanfield) August 21, 2018
Given CNBC’s lackluster track record, many cynics are saying that its most-recent call could be counter-traded. The media outlet is now calling for a $16,000 price for Bitcoin by the end of the year.
CNBC Completely Inconsistent on Bitcoin Calls
CNBC’s opinions on Bitcoin’s future price movement have frankly been all over the place. For example, BeInCrypto reported in August 2019 that CNBC correspondent Joe Kernen argued for a Bitcoin price of $55,000 before the next halving. Of course, this could end up still being true, but the odds of that happening are slim to none.
CNBC has a wide array of analysts, so it’s hard to demarcate any consistency among them. Oftentimes, the calls are outrageous just to generate clicks. However, traders can nonetheless still use them as a metric on which to judge market sentiment. As Canfield has shown, analysts generally come late to the party and it’s a sign that we may have topped out in a given cycle.
However, we should bear in mind that past performance is not indicative of future performance. CNBC calls could take a turn for the better in 2020, but that still seems unlikely given the poor track record we’ve seen in both 2018 and 2019.
Images courtesy of Shutterstock, Trading View and Twitter.
