Russian armor attrition rates in Ukraine are substantial but, according to a think tank, not crippling, Reuters reports. Despite losing an estimated 3,000 tanks in the theatre, a new report indicates Russia has plenty of older tank reserves to soak up the losses. In fact, according to the think tank, Russia should have enough stockpiles for years to come.
The think tank in question, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), recently published a report on the matter in its annual Military Balance earlier this month. According to the ISS, Ukraine has also suffered significant losses since Russia's invasion in February 2022.
However, with the help of Western military replenishments, they have been able to maintain their inventories and improve their military capabilities. According to the IISS report, Russia still has approximately twice the number of combat-ready tanks as Ukraine, despite losing an estimated 1,120 tanks in the last year alone.
Henry Boyd, the institute's senior fellow for military capability, estimates that Russia has put around 1,000 to 1,500 more tanks into service in the past year, roughly "breaking even" in terms of replacements.
Russian tanks coming out of storage
Reuters explains that out of all the tanks deployed, only 200 were newly constructed, while the majority were older models that had been refurbished. The report further stated that Moscow was able to prioritize quantity over quality by retrieving thousands of older tanks from storage, often at a rate of up to 90 tanks per month.
If the report's estimates are correct, Moscow "could potentially sustain around three more years of heavy losses and replenish tanks from stocks, even if at lower-technical standard, irrespective of its ability to produce new equipment," the report explains.
The report also gives an overview of Ukraine's attempts to shelter its younger troops, with the average age of frontline personnel being in their 40s. It also gives some insight into Europe and America's financial support for the beleaguered former Soviet Socialist Republic.
"Western governments find themselves once again in a position where they must decide whether to furnish Kiev with enough weapons to deliver a decisive blow, rather than merely enough not to lose," IISS Director-General Bastian Giegerich explains in the report.
Ukraine-Russia stalemate to continue for some time
In response to the mounting losses from the Ukrainian campaign, Russia has moved defense factories to round-the-clock production in three shifts as it places its economy on a war footing. "It's an astounding figure," said Singapore-based defense analyst Alexander Neill, referring to the estimate of 3,000 tanks lost.
"Some of those could have been older tanks, so one of the big questions is how many of its most advanced tanks does it have left for any major future offensives," added Neill.
According to IISS experts, due to the heavy losses suffered by both sides and the attritional nature of trench warfare, the current stalemate is expected to continue.
"Neither side can do a large-scale attack without incurring very heavy casualties, and that's likely to continue for the foreseeable future," IIIS land warfare analyst Barry said.
