Root
Regulations Crypto
USA Takes Sides, Backs GNA, Libyan War End in Sight, Will it Affect Bitcoin?

USA Takes Sides, Backs GNA, Libyan War End in Sight, Will it Affect Bitcoin?

Do repost and rate:

Rated:145

One of the last hot zone in the world may be nearing peace after a victory by the United Nations-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) against Khalifa Haftar led Libyan National Army (LNA).

Turkey’s intervention in favor of GNA gave Russia the only loss in battle in living memory in sending away their Wagner mercenaries.

What was a very messy picture until now is beginning to gain clarity and thus hope this conflict may come to an end perhaps in this very 2020.

This victory by Turkey is said to have elevated considerably their status in the region, that is to the south of Istanbul, giving Turkey some sense of leadership in its much troubled neighborhood.

There are rumors they may even get involved in Yemen, the last proper hot zone on earth, with it unclear whether they can restore peace and stability in the Crescent.

Egypt may be involved in Libya, threatening the taking of Sirte (pictured) by GNA would be crossing a line.

The Egyptian people themself however, at least those willing to fight, seem to be against Haftar, a former strongman in the Gaddafi administration.

The choice here so seemingly being in a very crude sense between a potential new dictator, Haftar, and between what some in the west may perceive as the risks of democracy, GNA, which could potentially lead to the Muslim Brotherhood or their affiliates taking power as they did in Egypt before a former general and now effectively their dictator, President Abdul Fattah el-Sisi, took charge in a coup.

Western powers have only watched until recently because the picture was far too messy to make heads or tail, letting the old rivals of Russia and Turkey to battle it out, but the willingness of Putin, and thus of the Russian administration, to effectively declare itself a dictatorship, appears to have placed much less on the fence at least some of Europe and now America, with their ambassador in Libya stating:

“Incursions by Wagner mercenaries against NOC facilities, as well as mixed messages conceived in foreign capitals and conveyed by the so called Libyan National Army (LNA) on July 11, hurt all Libyans striving for a secure and prosperous future…

We are confident the Libyan people see clearly who is prepared to help Libya move forward and who instead has chosen irrelevance.”

Too Much Chewing For Putin?

Plenty were happy to ignore Russia’s capricious behavior until suddenly their troops, although in a characteristically Russian way of non troops, found their way to the very borders of Italy, Libya.

Italy itself has paid no heed despite receiving so many refugees due to this war, but perceived interference in the balkans has increased nervousness even more.

The very close election in Poland that led to Andrzej Duda retaining the presidency by only naught point something percent, has probably raised eyebrows even more in some corners of Europe in regards to what exactly is Germany doing as it watches the events unfolding in its very border.

Then just yesterday suddenly there’s some clashes in the Armenian-Azerbajani border, leading plenty to wonder whether we have for too long not seen that Russia potentially is inclined to only cause trouble.

Like the Wagner mercenaries there’s of course no evidence of Russian involvement in many of these things, but they do have a common thread of Russia claiming a sphere of influence over them.

Thus like him or not, Erdogan’s willingness to stand up to Putin while others seem to be very much asleep, appears to have invigorated the region, with Turkish men unbearding a bit recently, presumably to show they are still very much Europeans, and to show that they are now a bit more relaxed after this victory.

The American Balance?

Though a Turkish opinion piece called Libya the great unmasking, we would call it more the potential great re-alignment as with the end of the war on trrrr, presumably the focus and the primary aims are now very different.

America is packing its bags, in defeat, leaving the region at least as far as boots are concerned, just as the American people want after two decades of war.

The still very great country may now focus more on enforcing order, and of course the question is how best to do so with their very close ally, UAE, potentially worried about Brotherhood ambitions to send absolutist kingdoms to the history books as Europe did quite a few centuries ago.

There is little America wouldn’t do for UAE, but this is the statement of their ambassador in full:

“U.S. Embassy Regrets Foreign Interference Against Libya’s Economy

After several days of intense diplomatic activity aimed at allowing the National Oil Corporation (NOC) to resume its vital and apolitical work as a way of defusing military tensions, the U.S. Embassy regrets that foreign-backed efforts against Libya’s economic and financial sectors have impeded progress and heightened the risk of confrontation.

Incursions by Wagner mercenaries against NOC facilities, as well as mixed messages conceived in foreign capitals and conveyed by the so called Libyan National Army (LNA) on July 11, hurt all Libyans striving for a secure and prosperous future.

Illegal obstruction of the long-overdue audit of the banking sector further undermines the desire of all Libyans for economic transparency.

These disappointing actions will not deter the Embassy from its commitment to work with responsible Libyan institutions, such as the Government of National Accord (GNA) and the House of Representatives (HOR), to protect Libya’s sovereignty, achieve a lasting ceasefire, and support a Libyan consensus on the transparent management of oil and gas revenues.

The door remains open for all who lay down weapons, reject foreign manipulation, and come together in peaceful dialogue to be a part of the solution; however, those who undermine Libya’s economy and cling to military escalation will face isolation and risk of sanctions.

We are confident the Libyan people see clearly who is prepared to help Libya move forward and who instead has chosen irrelevance.”

As the picture was very messy, that America did not choose a side and so signal to others, is perhaps not surprising.

That they chose to back Turkey, which because of its waters is pretty much a neighbor, is also not very surprising either.

Turkey’s highly strategic position especially where Libya is concerned, could not quite lead to any other outcome if one considers that America may be thinking of having Turkey as a backup of sorts if, god forbid, relations go a bit sour with Europe.

Then there’s the Black Sea and Turkey’s buffer zones to the Caspian Sea, with the recent provocations there making that part potentially even Germany’s business as the trans-adriatic pipeline makes its way.

The Strategy?

The only sensible one in our view to ensure these grandpas stop bickering with each other is to have a division of labour of sorts with European Turkey burdened with ‘policing’ the parts to the south of Istanbul, and European Russia the parts to the east of the Caspian Sea.

From there in that square line up the eastern shores of the Caspian Sea and to the west of Istanbul, no one should be playing in any cheatable way or zones of influence way as what happens anywhere in that square affects all within it as we have seen twice in the 20th century.

Now whether our grandpas agree with this and whether they can implement it is a different matter, but you would think the global protests of last year were a clear and loud warning with it unpredictable what would happen if they repeat.

Millennials and those younger are unwilling to stand for any continuation of any hostilities anywhere in the world and this very angry generation, though it knows very well what mess there would be, knows also what mess some up there seem keen on creating.

Therefore one should expect some sort of better response than the first half of 2020 and one should hope the grandpas do move towards shaking hands more.

Because it is not these grandpas that will enjoy the fruits of their current half working brain labour, and therefore the young are shaping the facts on the ground more and more.

In Russia, they appear to hate Putin, every single one of them, presumably because this country, the largest on earth by landmass, appears to have no paint in its entire vast resources as shown by its buildings anywhere you go save for the four glass houses in Moscow.

And yet holistically grandpa Putin, looked from their interests, has tried to do his best, but as some do know once a goal is achieved – and a stable rule of law, ish, Russia has been achieved – there can be some period of wilderness to find the time for the ‘building’ of another really wanted aim or purpose.

Which is why we limit the elected, especially at the very highest office, for about a decade. The reason for which Russia knows very well due to its own history which quite unfortunately has this land certainly one century behind, but perhaps even two, despite its Tolstoys and many in the book scientists.

Russia should and must work towards propelling up Europe in ways that actually matter, like paints on buildings, and not in any way towards courting any sorts of wood stupid bickering between people of no difference whatever, like the Armenians and Azerbajanis or in the Balkans.

Likewise for Turkey which has stood up to take on European burdens because it is in the border, which thus arguably should court perhaps more of a carrot than maybe the little stick that Russia perhaps should court as it hasn’t quite behaved like part of the European family, albeit the transgressions have been somewhat smallish but they need to be a player not a capricious courtier of sticks.

Unless they want to play with Mongolians in which case we’ll know they’re more Mongolians then Europeans and thus in these Duda things we can freely shout at Germany for being unable to control its own borders.

Not that we wouldn’t like to extend our hand to Mongolians, but that’s for different editorials.

We would like to extend our hand to all as long as they behave and don’t close our exchanges like China has, because we want people to be busy tiring their brain on whether they should play with bitcoin or eth, or with a Musk rocket instead of those European Arianes ones, rather than tiring their heads with deciding which mountain they should choose to raise their goats if these grandpas become even more half brained dum.

Because although some may like to see bitcoin as some sort of Amish backup if things go south, bitcoin is of course more the very edges of advancement in trying to improve even further the already fairly sophisticated paper financial system.

And thus you’d think if more potential Tolstoys can spend their time with modern pens, rather than mountain goats, then the more valuable something like bitcoin and the many other things like nicely painted buildings.

So if Libya is moving towards peace, that can be only good for bitcoin as intelligence is somewhat randomly dispersed because it has a sort of incomprehensible relationship with experience, meaning the best of genes can still lead to the dumbest brain depending on what environmental experience one has, and vice versa.

Therefore the more people working towards the proper hard problems, like how to become a multi-planetary species which is the fundamental geopolitical risk of us all, then the better.

And of course the more they have savings, then the more they can invest in assets, like bitcoin itself but also in startups or innovations that potentially even reduce the half-braininess of these grandpas to only 70% dum heads.

Comments