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Well well, it has been a bit of an entertaining week all around. Obviously, some of us tend to be a bit focussed on the comings and goings of crypto-land... and that has certainly been quite interesting. However, if we step back... things are not really looking that rosy in the rest of the world either. High costs of living that are still spiralling upwards, energy prices soaring, food prices going up, and supply chains still disrupted. Well... all of this didn't happen overnight, it has been many years and decades in the making... but the unlucky confluence of a few events has made clear how badly balanced the entire system was. Honestly, I don't really think it is a Left-Right issue at all... there is more than enough blame to go around, and when things are good... well, there is more than enough "stability" to feed even the worst of the excesses and poor long-term planning decisions.
... and in essence, this is the root of all our problems at the moment. Most of our planning in the more recent 50 or so years have been geared towards short term thinking, and targeting metrics that are at best, meaningless. The desire to "measure" something, just anything, and make the number better... leads to perverse incentives and poor decision making... plus, lack of visionary thinking about the future. All is sacrificed on the altar of short term gain and pleasing of stock-holders.
I'm sure that many people would blame government... however, I'm more inclined to blame corporate greed. Government wasn't the problem, regulatory capture by corporations was the real problem. In our common desire to have less regulation in the good times, we allowed ourselves to be conned into thinking that government was the problem (don't get me wrong, there are definitely inefficiencies and corruption in governments, just like any human endeavour)... and we allowed ourselves to think that corporations and private enterprise were our salvation and friends, because they were the enemies of government. Sadly, the truth was more that we were useful pawns who were used to weaken government, so that corporations and the wealthy could overpower them. The enemy of my enemy is NOT your friend... it is a temporary alliance of temporarily aligned interests, they are still your enemy! Or at best a wary and untrusted partner in the game....
Anyway, the stock markets are red, the victims of rampant inflation due to the pandemic and loose monetary policy are NOT the wealthy or the corporations... it is the regular little person who just has to buy petrol and food. Sure, the pandemic introduced money printing at unprecedented levels... and as a partial recipient of some of that, I would argue that the concept of rescue was good. However, in practice, much of the money went to sectors that did NOT need the rescue, and now refuse to pay back what is "rightfully" theirs... I would argue that a particular social contract was broken, but lets be honest, a corporation has no need for a social contract... they far outlast the lifetime of an individual. Take for instance, those companies that will stretch out a litigation in order to allow the other side to die or bleed out financially. From a purely game-theoretic point of view, it is a winning strategy.... from a social point of view, it is an arsehole move. However... as I've discovered and mentioned before... there is no law against arseholery!
So... back away from the "real world" and the threat of a great recession and a looming cost of living disaster. I complain... but I will be okay. I don't attribute this to anything more than luck and circumstance... things could easily have been different, very different.
Anyway, back to the point... crypto markets are red... portfolios have taken a dive in sympathy with the rest of the markets... and blood is in the water. This means that the whales are now eyeing each other off.. as I had mentioned in a previous post, the low tide means that there are now many funds, investors, and leveraged traders that are exposed... dangerously so, illiquid or insolvent. Both are a disaster in these sorts of markets. We start to see who has been playing a prudent strategy and who has been pressing the accelerator with no concern for anything else.
As soon as one whale is in trouble... others will smell the blood. And it will be very profitable for them to kill the wounded whale... incredibly profitable. Short them all the way down, and watch as the liquidations start to cascade downwards. Already, I start to see some insane borrowing numbers, as people borrow crypto-assets to sell short and make profits that way.... it is quite unbelievable!
These are dangerous times, and it is a good idea to stick your head in and wait for the games to finish. No leveraging, take self-custody as much as possible... don't chase yields or APRs. Just preserve what you have, or get out if you don't have the stomach for it! At this point in time, it is better to build up token numbers of decent projects, and not think too much about the conversion to fiat. This will be a time of seeing who actually believes in the core promises of decentralised technology for the future... and who were believing the dollar signs! Some of us are a bit of both.... but only the true idealists will remain, and the rest of us will have lessons for the future!
Stay safe, see you all out the other end!
I can also be found cross-posting at:
Publish0x
Handy Crypto Tools
Ledger Nano S/X: Keep your crypto safe and offline with the leading hardware wallet provider. Not your keys, not your crypto!
: My first choice of centralised exchange, featuring a wide variety of crypto and savings products.
: My second choice in exchanges, many tokens listed here that you can't get on Binance!
: Regulated US-based exchange with some pretty interesting and useful discounts on trading and withdrawal fees for FTT holders. Decent fiat on-ramp as well!
: Listings of lots of interesting tokens that are usually only available on DEXs. Avoid high gas prices!
: One of the largest exchanges in the world, some very interesting listings and early access sales through Primelist.
: If you are after some of the weirdest and strangest tokens, this is one of the easiest off-chain places to get them!
: If you need a regulated and safe environment to trade, this is the first exchange for most newcomers!
Crypto.com: Mixed feelings, but they have the BEST looking VISA debit card in existence! Seriously, it is beautiful!
: Access to early investor and crowdsale of vetted and reserached projects.
Cointracking: Automated or manual tracking of crypto for accounting and taxation reports.
: One of the older regulated exchanges that has come into new ownership. I used to use it quite a lot, but have since stopped.
: Ahhh... another oldie, but a goodie exchange. Most noted for the close affiliation with USDT and the Basic "no-KYC" tier!
