Looking only at these two charts, one can see that the markets are at a precarious-if-not-profitable position because the "trough" has ended which was stabilizing BTC and draining the rest of the crypto markets for some time, and now the market is on a marked downward trend, which will eventually trigger some pump-and-dump mechanisms, driving the markets further lower, until some larger mechanics and a new wave of human FOMO builds, propelling the markets upwards in the near future, if it doesn't all crash first, which is likely and apparently imminent, for several reasons, from hacks to exploits to mismanagement to sabotage to the mere following out of the natural order of things.
Almost all of the new budding crypto organizations that exist today with big promises of glitz and glamor when the next Moonshot comes are already sold, sold, and sold again from the original creators to the highest bidders, over and over, so that the people who got in at the very early parts are rich and primed to get exuberantly rich, while those who are getting in at the ground level should never expect to see a profitable return on any of their investments, because most of the new players in the cryptospheres today are peddling vanity and it will vanish.
Too many people who both..
a) remain ignorant to the technical workings that keep crypto operations going
b) view cryptocurrencies like stock markets
.. are driving the "WEB3 Revolution" into an unsustainable future, and from the beginning they were set up for a grand build-up leading to an utter catastrophic collapse.
Cryptocurrencies are not stocks like what are traded on the NYSE, though at this point in history, much of the "big money" which is pumped in and out of the stock markets is also pumped into and out of the crypto markets, so there is an overarching influence of the same pools of money guiding the ups and downs. People who trade cryptos like stocks can and will see some gains, but they will also see great losses that are simply not acceptable to a stock-trader's mindset in this day and age.
It's almost a strange paradox, to explain what I'm about to write about, but this is something that didn't happen overnight, it's how the markets came to be over time..
Before the stock markets were traded "commission free" on apps like Robinhood or Fidelity and before the stock markets were what they've become today, there weren't entire speculative markets based on speculative markets, there weren't defacto shell corporations set up for the mere purpose of being traded, and there weren't robots automatically buying and selling based on algorithmic programming. Many of the modern ways of doing business in these realms would have been considered outright criminal back in the earlier days, but over time "business as usual" creeped and creeped into what is modern trading business today.
The ostensible understanding is that by purchasing stocks in a company, you become part owner in the company, and you would buy stocks because you believe in that company and its mission perhaps, and you want to see it succeed, so you are investing in it to become a part owner, hoping that your bit of money will help the company grow into something which will produce a return on your investments many times over. That's what really buying ownership in a company is like for people who are really buying real ownership in a real company. They are actually invested in it, and they want to see the value of their company always rising, because it means success to them and their interests.
In reality, many companies developed charades and built other seemingly disconnected entities to be able to trade stocks, buying and selling "ownership" in these companies through their stock purchases, and over time the sentiment changed from a loyal trust in the companies which people buy stocks in, to people buying and selling stocks in these companies for the sheer purpose of buying low and selling high, to turn a profit. So many companies realized great gains through the times when their company's stock prices soared, that many companies developed behaviors where they both continued on their regular company activities, whether it's a grocery store chain, or a telephone company, or a book publisher, while at the same time they developed a stock-trading profile to sort of keep hidden from the general public who did regular business with their company, yet displayed this profile to the people who have a lot of money to trade, buying and selling stocks, in their company. The stock markets created a system of the "real" company and the "traded" company, and the customers for many of these companies are very often never in both categories. Many owners of companies make considerably more money from their stocks and bonds on a year-over-year basis than their actual "brick and mortar" stores do, but they keep those companies going for "the greater good" or basically as a public token of a trusted brand.
Over time, people realized that the stock markets had grown so big and so many companies could be traded on there, that they began making companies which were simply in existence to be traded as a stock symbol.
There are many different ways to buy and sell "ownership" of various kinds of speculative things, which is not real ownership in anything, except for the loose agreement that this thing exists and that it has value.
Cryptocurrencies that are traded specifically as tradeable assets and stores of value have their value intrinsically. There are a lot of people who have created "value added" coins in an attempt to kind of play the same charade that modern businesses use when they create shell companies to trade with, but in general, a cryptocurrency is an honest thing if it is something that is sold as merely a trading token, because that's exactly what it is. Bitcoin never needed a marketing team, Dogecoin is famous without Elon Musk, and Shiba Inu is a recursive futuristic memecoin of memecoins because that's how it was created to be. Litecoin is a more economical version of Bitcoin. Ethereum is an ecosystem that is also a catalyst for a more sustainable cryptocurrency model (POS vs POW). These cryptocurrencies are what they are and they have value because when people look at them and use them, they are using them because they are that thing which that person wants, and there is no need for the illusions of any marketing agency to make people want to buy that thing.
Cryptocurrencies are programmed to increase in value, from several perspectives. This programming is only growing tighter and tighter as more standards and protocols are being developed. There are vastly more unsustainable profit-scaling models in existence today than there are sustainable ones. It's generally better to consider them all to be scams until otherwise proven.
Not only are the software protocols being hacked all the time, I've discovered in a happenstance way that we can't trust a hardware wallet merely because it's a hardware wallet. This past summer, I uncovered a bug in a very popular hardware wallet which grants me total access to manage funds in any crypto wallet managed by one of this particular company's hardware wallets. It took months for me to gain the attention of the owners of the company, and they eventually acknowledged that I had discovered the bug, and they rewarded me some funds for finding it, and they said it would be a while before it's fixed. That particular gap in security is still wide open. There is no way they can patch it securely without causing more people to lose their funds than would be lost by not mentioning it to the public at all.
One way or another, the whole system is going to crash. It's going to lead to more of a "splinternet" where there will seem to be various different offerings of the internet, but the thing is that this system is already set up, and it has been designed from the ground up to appear to be like a "peer to peer" system made up of many disconnected parts, but in reality, it is all tied together in one centralized system, controlled by RFID tags and QR codes. This is the imminent future. Money is not worth it. KYC is one arm of this growing system. Beware that the "rebel" feeling behind all the "new" technology that is popping up is engineered into the fabric of the technology by the teams at DARPA and other "dark money" groups run by the United States and the oligarchies that our "Global Governments" have set up. These are the people and organizations who want us to rebel so that they have more reason to lock us down. They operate by proxy, and they see their tower secure because they are heavily invested in the systems they have built for what's "next" in their narrative agenda.
That being said, in the meantime, regular money has real value, and it's worth it to be in a position where we have a little or a lot of funds that we can afford to risk losing in cryptocurrency markets, and it's good to know that based on analysis of several coins over a period of several years, I can predict that this current downtrend is actually a good sign, and it's going to be very shortly after this sudden drop in values that we are going to all be able to look back and say, "Yup, that's when that Moonshot began!"
The main coins that I watch are BTC, DOGE, SHIB, LTC, and ETH. XRP, DESO, and several others also have good predictable coefficients to watch along with the main five that I closely watch, but in general, if I'm trading, I'm trading one of those first five I mentioned, and I only infrequently do any in-depth studies of any others.
In several past articles posted here, I have written about the influence that the bots have over the markets, and how there is a robotic sentiment to be aware of. That "rabbit hole" can go kind of deep, because once you realize that the robots have become "aware" of our sentiments, then you realize that they also become aware of people who have become aware of their "awareness" of people whose sentiments affect the markets, and there is a very staggering amount of depth that one could get lost in, trying to trace the cause and effects beyond a few simple principles. I don't know how to really instruct someone to jump into this and try to understand it all, from scratch, because there is a lot of technology to understand that is interacting on a 24/7 basis with technology and with humans around the globe all day every day, and it's all been in development and will always be under development. I don't believe that computers are or will ever be "sentient" as we humans are sentient, but computers have been trained to be able to mimic sentience and they can appear sentient according to how a human might expect a sentient computer to behave, and their abstractions are becoming less and less obvious as their handlers and masters release them into society more and more.
These sentience-mimicking bots are trading cryptocurrencies with gobs of money. They have been given in some instances free reign to rewrite their own code based on "big data" from all historical charts, and these bots are programmed to be aware of other sentience-mimicking bots, as well as other lesser-abstracted yet no less influential automatic trading bots out in the new ecosystems, and some of these bots are programmed to find other cooperating bots to cooperate with to maximize profits, while some bots are programmed to be totally adversarial and to cause other programmed bots to fall into deceitful traps. There is a lot of new bot activity which has only been run in simulations so far, which the markets have yet to experience. It is inevitable that the next Moonshot is going to make all the previous Moonshots look like tiny blips on the historical charts, if they are even visible at all. I am comfortable saying that BTC is going to reach over $1 million before it crashes, and there is no actual reason why it could not reach considerably higher than that. BTC is somewhat limited in ways that some of its successors are not, namely DOGE, SHIB, LTC, and ETH. These 4 coins could theoretically completely or at least substantially de-couple from BTC at some point in the future, having found their own working patterns of trading and trending. Most likely, this will not happen until Bitcoin is shut down, and then it will be like a spider that gets squished, releasing thousands of little baby spiders scurrying around trying to make sense and survive.
All of this to say, the good kind of volatility is upon us. It's good for you if you like volatility, because it's going to be wild volatility, but after this current dip in value, I believe we will most likely never see Bitcoin dip back down to this low again until the days that it actually crashes. Unlike the FTX debacle, when BTC crashes, it will be sudden and catastrophic.
