VOUCHER tokens were introduced with CHAOS Legion so that the team could limit the pack sale in the presale as VOUCHER was getting airdropped based on SPS stake at the rate of 20K VOUCHERS per day. So VOUCHERS, when launched were traded as high as 25 Hive per VOUCHER initially. I guess this translates to more than $20 for one Voucher, compared to the current price which is now trading at less than 4 cents now.
I do not imagine a valuation of more than $1 for Vouchers but the current price i.e. under 4 cents is too low and I feel vouchers should have more value.
If we go with Splinterlands.com, more than 11 million VOUCHERs are in circulation and 40K are added to this total every day. Since the site already mentioned the overall supply of more than 28 million, I assume they already removed the voucher's total owner by the Splinterland team, sps dao, and null. The 11 million number will be representing the Vouchers owned by the players only and now this looks like a big supply to me if there is no use case.
What can consume Vouchers.
Rebellion pack sales can consume the Vouchers on daily basis but it means that 8000 packs are to be sold daily to counter the inflation. In the current scenario, I do not think that current rebellion pack sale can counter the daily inflation.
Also recent Splinterlands townhall , there is hint that can provide more utility to vouchers.
Burn events
Promo cards
January updates
Conflicts will go out
Conflicts will need Vouchers, I also expect Promo cards will be sold on a combination of SPS stake, DEC, and Voucher. For the Burn Event, I guess the team might be encouraging the burning of cards or unopened packs in which they will might include vouchers or maybe not.
Overall at the current juncture, I am very unsure if vouchers can have a price discovery beating their daily inflation.
SPS flywheel will have an impact.
If you think deeply then you will be able to deduce that SPS soaring can soar the voucher prices. A high SPS price leads to high Play2earn earnings, which causes the reinvestment of capital as Rebellion pack and it might cause more burn of vouchers compared to the daily inflation that will start leading its price up.
May be back to defi pool.
In this situation of indecision, I see the best option is to put the Vouchers in the defi pool.
50% APR looks nice and the current voucher price is less than 4 cents, it looks worth taking the risk.
My disclaimer.
I had sold my vouchers to fuel my GLX growth as my overall outlook for voucher is somewhat pessimistic but currently, I am accumulating the vouchers that I earn for my SPS stake and node license and thinking of waiting till March 2024 to decide on whether to sell them or buy more.
I will suggest you for your DYOR but lot will depend upon SPLINTERLANDS team roadmap and plans for vouchers in 2024.
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