Archetype Usage, Win Rates, and Matchups
[Reposted from my Axie blog - https://paragraph.xyz/@lunacian - if you like the post, consider collecting it on Paragraph.xyz
We are shifting from Bubbles to Rage as we moved from Rare to Epic Era thanks to Mask of Frenzy and the new Epic Rune - Inspirational Hero. Getting into Fury is easier than ever. This is also reflected in the price of Mask of Frenzy in the marketplace which is more expensive than many Epic Runes! The good news is that the new crafting system and the Scrap system makes it easier to get Mask of Frenzy without spending fortune.
Fury Aggro becomes to most popular archetypes in Challenger
Feather, Poison, Fury Aggro at the top with Perch climbing
Eggshell Mavis, a new archetype, finding success against Fury Aggro
Player Base Statistics
Number of Players in each Victory Star Brackets
Close to 20000 players come (back) to Origins in the past week, which I suspect many of which are Axie Classic players playing Origins for the new Daily Bounty Board. Over 10000 of the players coming in this week has below 200 Victory Star, as can be seen in the very skewed distribution. It is interesting to see that the number of players in Dragon or above is actually lower this Season (8273) compared to last season at around the same time (9335), though do note that this Season's data is captured 1 day earlier compared to last season in the Epic Era.
Archetype Usage
Overall archetype usage
Archetype Usage for Matches Played in each Victory Star Bracket
Only 3 players and 257 matches were played at 2200+ Victory Star from Days 3 to 5 of the Epic Era, but we can see that Feather, Fury Aggro, and Poison are the top archetypes at the moment in terms of usage at the top.
There are also Perch and Eggshell Mavis teams in 2100-2200 VStar (as well as a triple Turnip team). As we go down the ladder, we start to see more Jinx, Anemonem Leafy, and Pure DMG Sturdy Fighter.
Most notably, Sandal is the archetype that is getting pushed out, and of course there is also the disapperance of Giant Bubble. Having said that, there are still Sponge teams around even at 2000-2100 VStar.
Archetype Win Rates and Matchups
Overall Archetype Win Rates
Overall Win Rates of Popular Archetypes
Early in the Eras, the overall win rate of archetypes gives a good indication of the success of the archetypes as the archetypes rise and fall based on their power levels, slowly reaching equilibrium as the meta settles.
Poison and Feather are doing the best at the top with optimised Perch teams still climbing. Fury Aggro is doing well overall but its overall win rate is not as high partly due to its popularity and mirror matches, pulling it towards 50%.
Sandal is falling together with Giant Bubble, 2 archetypes that were popular and strong in the Rare Era, but not so in the Epic Era.
Archetype Matchups
Overall Archetype Matchups
Fury Aggro seems to be doing pretty well except when faced against Birds - Feather and Eggshell Mavis. Given the popularity of Fury Aggro, Feather and Eggshell Mavis are certainly enjoying the meta. For Feather, its matchups are actually fairly average across the whole Challenger, partly because of the different versions and non-optimal teams.
Interestingly, Eggshell Mavis has quite a polarise matchup spread, which does very well against Fury Aggro, Anemone, and Sandal, as Mavis can block a lot of damage of these archetypes. However, it is bad against Poison, Feather, and Perch, which can deal with or simply ignore Mavis pretty easily.
Jinx is relatively popular, especially with the rework of Fate Maker, making it so much easier to disrupt opponent's hand. Jinx actually has quite an even matchup spreaf the Era except against Poison, which does not really need cards to deal damage once the Poison stacks are up. Poison is not a bad spot this season if not for the popularity of Fury Aggro which gives Poison a tough time. If more players pick up Perch, it will be even harder for Poison players.
Finally as a Perch player, I should talk about Perch, which has an amazing matchup spread across the board except against Fury Aggro, which can be too fast for Perch, and against Jinx, which can get rid of some many keys cards from the hand and the draw pile.
It is good to see that various archetypes are counter each other at the top of the meta with Feather probably being the most successful archetype without a clear counter at the top (unless Spikes or Sustain somehow making it to the top). It has to be said that games tend to be a lot shorter now with most games ending in Round 4 or earlier, which I personally like as I do not have much time to play these days. I am also happy to see a new archetype in the form of Eggshell Mavis, which may make many Classic Birds with Mavis eyes potentially viable in this meta.
Let's see if the meta will continue to be filled with Rage and Feather. Or perhaps we may see something new come up, who knows?
Thank you so much for your support! If you have any comments and/or suggestions, please feel free comment or reach out to me on X (Twitter) or Discord @mauriceccy.
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