Bitcoin opened the year at one of the highest price levels ever. Really looking like a solid year, if we don’t ruin it with some funny events. In all my time in the space, I’ve not seen a year as bullish as the one we just entered, but it's hard to tell the future. $100,000 Bitcoin and $5,000 Ethereum, you are surely expecting your shitcoins to print some good numbers this year too, the Lambo dreams look more realistic than ever. The stars are aligning, but this space has a history of being wild.
This isn’t even financial advice but here’s how we might rock this year;
Bitcoin Halving
At the time this article was written, a Bitcoin miner earns 6.25 Bitcoins for each block they mine successfully. This is set to change later this year after the next Bitcoin halving, stipulated for April this year. 3.125 BTC per block is still a very significant reward. Compared to what miners used to receive, we’ll have a 50% lesser emission rate. This has been shown to have a positive effect on the price of Bitcoin, hopefully, history continues to repeat itself. Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV will also be halving this year; you probably don’t care much, but I just had to put it there in case.
Spot EFTs
If things go as expected, we could have some major developments on the Bitcoin ETF applications from the previous year. The build-up from 2023 was catalyzed partly by rumors surrounding spot ETFs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a few other cryptocurrencies. The effect on the value of these assets is out of the question, IF the ETF applications go through, then we can expect some real fireworks, but IF. Apart from the assets with filled spot ETF requests currently, ETF listing applications for more crypto assets could happen in 2024.
Pump it, Nope?
Bitcoin halving and Spot ETFs in the same year. Cryptocurrencies have pumped due to some ridiculous news, these two events are of very much importance compared to these. I’d say we are due for that $100k Bitcoin and $5,000 Ethereum. Altcoins are due for a pump, memecoins too. Everyone, really. Just remember to take profits on some of your ‘blue chip memecoins’ though. This might not last for assets in that class, but this is not financial advice either.
Shift in CEX dominance
Centralized exchanges are controlling crypto trading. For all the average investor cares, this is more than fine. But the thing is, decentralized exchanges are getting better, apart from the periodic exploitations, of course. The big advantage is the freedom it gives investors and project teams as well. The fact that you don’t need to pay a listing fee to create a liquidity pool is cool stuff. On CEXs, listing fees run into hundreds of thousands (dollars). If you are not a liquidity provider, Decentralized exchanges are a bit safe, but don’t forget to revoke access when you are done with your swap. I could make a list of some promising decentralized exchanges; Mute on ZkSync, DyDx, and a few others, but I’m sure there are tons of other excellent decentralized exchanges. These decentralized exchanges will likely challenge CEXs for trading volume. I said, Challenge!
Regulatory crackdowns to continue
We saw many crypto institutions sit in the courtroom and even more invited to investigation panels. Regulatory bodies in different countries are taking a closer look at what we are doing here, and where they see an opportunity, they will certainly swoop; especially if there’s a possibility of going away with a few billion dollars. Don’t get this wrong, the space needs some regulation and we will surely be seeing more of these this year, hopefully they don’t ruin our party!
Bitcoin Virtual Machine (BitVM)
BRC-20 tokens might make the wave this year. SRC-20 tokens as well. But I think another trendsetter will be the Bitcoin Virtual Machine. No need for my personal opinion here, so I will just say what you want to hear; this Bitcoin VM could signal another Era for the Bitcoin blockchain. Decentralized finance and DApps on the oldest cryptocurrency blockchain will be an interesting one to see. Seriously, it will be even better if we just focus on making Bitcoin a perfect P2P payment facility. But that’s my opinion and it doesn’t even matter.
What else?
What else? This post surely didn’t cover everything, neither are the predictions correct. But before you laugh at the ‘ridiculous’ predictions, let’s know what we missed out on, and your personal predictions as well. No, don’t start with Michael Saylor buying more Bitcoin, that’s surely going to happen since the man actually wishes to own every Bitcoin on Earth. Also, what is a Bull run without ridiculous gas fees on Ethereum and some other L1s and even L2s? Maybe good news for projects like ZkSync and Arbitrum. Well, What else?
Concluding, it will be really interesting to see how these events unfold during the year. Sometimes things don’t really work out the way we want them. Hopefully, the disappointment is your memecoin printing a 10X instead of a 100X. Anyways, it’s all the same if you pass up on the profit-taking opportunities. On a more serious note, 2024 might not be business as you know it, even a semi-bear like myself is feeling so bullish! Looking forward to it!
Happy New Year!
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